Apr-30-2005 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 30 05:42:08 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050430 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20050430 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 300539
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 35 WSW YKM
   55 SW PDT 30 SE OWY 30 SE MLD 45 S RWL 25 SSE LAR 10 E LIC 30 NW P28
   15 NNW END 40 NE CSM 25 NNE TCC 15 N GUP 50 ENE DRA 40 NNE MER 30
   SSW MHS 20 NNE EUG 45 NNW CLM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MIA 20 WNW EYW
   ...CONT... 15 SSW CTY 45 NNW DAB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE PERSISTENT ONTARIO UPPER VORTEX WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EWD ON SUNDAY
   WITH AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM CONTINUING FROM CA TO THE SERN STATES. 
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL BE DIFFICULT
   TO TIME.  BUT...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
   TAKING THE H5 TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SERN STATES
   EARLY SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING.  AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT
   MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE
   OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY.  SRN PART OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SETTLE
   SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND PERHAPS SRN FL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE
   THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN FL...
   BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   ACROSS NRN OR CNTRL FL ALONG/N OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. 
   BOUNDARY LAYER S OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S TO 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS
   ADVECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA.  GIVEN THAT THE H5 TROUGH AXIS
   WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...TSTMS COULD
   INTENSIFY/DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR OTHER BOUNDARIES.  THOUGH
   VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE FROM N-S ACROSS FL...WLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME MAY ENCOURAGE A FEW STORMS TO BOW GIVING
   ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.  THE ISOLD SEVERE RISKS SHOULD MAINLY BE
   CONFINED TO THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
   DIVERGENT OWING TO DEVELOPMENT OF A CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO WAVE
   CYCLONE TOWARD EVENING.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/30/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z