Apr-30-2005 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Sat Apr 30 05:42:08 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 300539 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 35 WSW YKM 55 SW PDT 30 SE OWY 30 SE MLD 45 S RWL 25 SSE LAR 10 E LIC 30 NW P28 15 NNW END 40 NE CSM 25 NNE TCC 15 N GUP 50 ENE DRA 40 NNE MER 30 SSW MHS 20 NNE EUG 45 NNW CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MIA 20 WNW EYW ...CONT... 15 SSW CTY 45 NNW DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PERSISTENT ONTARIO UPPER VORTEX WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EWD ON SUNDAY WITH AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM CONTINUING FROM CA TO THE SERN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. BUT...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE H5 TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SERN STATES EARLY SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY. SRN PART OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SETTLE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND PERHAPS SRN FL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN OR CNTRL FL ALONG/N OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER S OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S TO 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. GIVEN THAT THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...TSTMS COULD INTENSIFY/DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR OTHER BOUNDARIES. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE FROM N-S ACROSS FL...WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME MAY ENCOURAGE A FEW STORMS TO BOW GIVING ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. THE ISOLD SEVERE RISKS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES DIVERGENT OWING TO DEVELOPMENT OF A CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO WAVE CYCLONE TOWARD EVENING. ..RACY.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |