May- 1-2005 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Sun May 1 05:13:33 UTC 2005
|
|||||
SPC AC 010512 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW P07 35 NNW GDP 20 NNE PRC 50 ESE BIH 45 NE SCK 10 NW MHS 35 S EUG 20 N SLE 35 NE DLS 40 NW PDT 50 SSW S80 10 N BYI 35 S EVW 50 W EGE 50 WSW COS 15 NNE TAD 20 ESE RTN 40 SSW CAO 15 NW AMA 50 N CDS 30 ENE SPS 45 S DAL 45 NW HOU 15 NE GLS ...CONT... 40 N PIE 25 SSE GNV 20 E JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE NRN AND ERN U.S THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT OF STRONG NWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED FROM NRN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST SOUTH OF LONG WAVE TROUGH...FROM SRN CA/NRN MEXICO..ACROSS THE PLAINS...TO FL. A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...IS FCST TO UNDERCUT MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND MOVE INTO DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. COLD SURGE...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SRN CO ATTM...WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY SFC ANTICYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING BENEATH MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY SSWWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX DURING THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. ...TRANS PECOS/BIG BEND REGION OF TX... NAM IS LIKELY TOO SLOW WITH SSWWD FRONTAL PENETRATION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CRITICAL TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. WHILE UPSLOPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND POINTS WEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BENEATH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR AHEAD THE BOUNDARY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT A NARROW PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY ACROSS THE FRONT...AND...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...RESULT IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED/POST FRONTAL TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HAIL EVENTS. IF NAM SCENARIO IS CORRECT...A MORE NWD PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM THE PECOS VLY ESEWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VLY. STORM INITIATION COULD OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HEATING OVERCOMES INHIBITION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS... POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS BY EVENING. GREATER POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND WITH THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES...AND AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..CARBIN.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |