May 27, 2005 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri May 27 17:33:35 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 271731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIA ALN 15 WNW VIH 15 ENE EMP 10 NNW GCK 60 ESE GLD EAR LNK OMA 20 WNW DSM 15 E CID PIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HKY 25 SSE DAN 45 W ECG 10 NE OAJ 50 N CHS AGS AHN AVL 30 NNE HKY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CNM MAF 10 SW SJT 35 ESE DRT P07 15 ESE MRF GDP CNM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RBL 30 SE CEC EUG RDM 30 SW BNO 75 NW WMC 25 NNE WMC 10 WSW U31 35 ENE TVL 50 SW SVE RBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E BLI YKM 15 W PDT 10 WSW SUN LND LAR 10 WSW BFF 35 SE AIA OFK SPW RWF AXN 15 NNW IWD ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 25 E CZZ PMD 45 N FAT SAC 25 WNW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE TBN CNU BVO MKO PGO 20 NNE HOT 20 NW MEM 10 SE MKL OWB EVV MVN 30 WNW MDH 20 ESE TBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 40 SE GNV 20 S VLD 35 SW DHN 15 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/LWR MO VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SAT AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF SW TX.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN AND EARLY EVE NEAR/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND NRN SIERRA NEVADA.... WHILE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN...BUT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD IN LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN STATES. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW WHICH EMANATED FROM MORE NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SYSTEM IS PROGGED INTO NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE PROGRESSING VERY SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... SOUTH OF BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. IN WEAKER MORE SOUTHERN STREAM...ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS BAJA INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. LOW-LEVEL COOLING/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT BROADER SCALE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE...THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REMAINS VERY WARM...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOSTLY MINOR WIND/HAIL THREATS...BUT SEVERE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED IN SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOCALIZED AREAS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... SOUTH/EAST OF MANITOBA CLOSED LOW...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. IN WAKE OF SYSTEM ACCELERATING EAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MODELS MAINTAIN 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS KANSAS INTO CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS MISSOURI SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND MODERATELY STRONG DESTABILIZATION BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSES. STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS A CONCERN...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHORTLY AFTER PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREAT. PERHAPS SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST IN FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... STRONGER HEATING/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...AS COMPARED TO AREAS AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES. FURTHERMORE...FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHWEST TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME STEEP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE WELL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...BUT ACTIVITY MAY BECOME ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST...BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. ...NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN CASCADES... MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT... MODERATE FLOW ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. ..KERR.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z |