SPC AC 061732
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE
   AIA 55 SSW PHP 15 NNE PHP MBG 35 SSW JMS FAR 40 NNE AXN 35 NNE RWF
   20 NE OTG 40 N SUX 20 ENE BUB 20 E MHN 45 ENE AIA.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E
   ELO 35 SW ESC 20 ESE MTW 30 SSW MKE CID 20 NNW LWD FNB SLN P28 CSM
   35 WNW ABI BGS 45 SSW LBB PVW 10 ENE LBL 45 SW HLC 40 NNE GLD 35 WNW
   IML 25 SW BFF 25 ENE DGW 81V DIK P24 35 E RRT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BOS UCA 15 SSE
   ROC CAK 15 W ZZV 30 NNE CRW 40 S EKN CHO WAL ...CONT... 20 ENE CRP
   30 NW VCT 40 S CLL 50 N HOU LFK GGG 45 ENE PRX 40 NE DUA ADM 45 SE
   SPS JCT 30 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF HOB 20 WNW AMA 25 W GCK GLD
   DEN 50 ESE VEL 15 SSE SLC OWY 50 SSW BNO 30 SSE RDM 30 WNW RDM SEA
   15 NE BLI.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN
   SD...NRN NEB..WRN MN...AND SWRN ND...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM
   THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SWD INTO WRN KS/OK AND TX PANHANDLE...
   
   ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
   
   ..SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE
   THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE RESULTING IN SEVERE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
   THE TROUGH WILL ELONGATE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS A STRONG
   MID/HIGH LEVEL JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECT NEWD FROM THE
   GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
   FROM ERN ND/NWRN MN SWWD INTO SERN WY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
   REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY...UNTIL THE SPEED MAX AND
   ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
   NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT AN MCS WILL BE MOVING EWD THROUGH MN AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD. THIS COMPLEX MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE
   MORNING. HOWEVER...HEATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE LINEAR
   SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.
   
   BACK TO WEST...FROM NEB NEWD INTO WRN MN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING 70F WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY BY
   AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS JET MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY...STRENGTHING 
   DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE ALONG
   SURFACE FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION
   AT LEAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONG LIFT SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION FROM CENTRAL SD NEWD INTO ERN
   ND/WRN MN ALONG THE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
   SWD INTO NEB LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER BASED STORMS 
   MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY 
   SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND
   STRENGTHING WIND FIELDS/SHEAR. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE A FORECAST OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
   FEW TORNADOES. ONE OR TWO LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SHOULD EVOLVE
   AND MOVE EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY ARE FUELED BY 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL
   JET. ONCE THE STORM DOWNDRAFTS CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR
   STRUCTURE...WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ...WRN KS/TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...
   CONVECTION IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS AREA AS FORCING
   WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW UPPER
   LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BETWEEN A
   SUBTROPICAL JET IN MEXICO AND POLAR JET FROM WY INTO SD.
   THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
   THE SHARPENING DRYLINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP... A
   VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO THE STORMS WOULD BE
   SLOW MOVING AND NOT MOVE TOO FAR EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...
   STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND/HAIL BEFORE
   WEAKENING AROUND MID EVENING.
   
   ..IMY.. 06/06/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z