SPC AC 151748
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
   MOT 30 SSW BIS 30 SE PHP 35 WNW BBW 20 SW CNK 20 SW TOP 25 NNE HRO
   35 NW GWO 40 NNE HEZ 50 SSE SHV 50 SE PRX 10 WSW DUA 40 E SPS 35 NW
   ABI 25 NNE MAF 10 N HOB 30 WNW CVS TCC 10 SSW CAO 40 SW DEN 40 N CPR
   35 W SHR 50 SSE LVM 35 ENE DLN 50 SSW 3DU 35 NW MSO 90 WNW FCA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 30 NNW ONM
   50 NNE 4SL 45 SSW GUC 25 WSW GJT 35 SW PUC 55 W ELY 35 SSE BAM 10
   NNE OWY 20 SSW BOI 65 SE BNO 65 NE SVE 15 SE RBL 40 NW UKI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE DVL 35 NE ABR
   45 NNE SUX 60 W DSM 40 SSW IRK 25 E MDH 50 ENE MKL 20 SE MEI 35 ENE
   DHN 55 W SAV 30 NE CRE ECG 40 WSW RIC 30 SSW SHD 40 W EKN 35 WSW HLG
   50 NNW MFD 10 SE MBS 20 E PLN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S GLS 40 ESE ACT
   25 SSE ABI 40 ESE MAF 30 W FST 40 S MRF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 W CAR 25 SW BHB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE REGION FROM THE
   NRN ROCKIES SEWD TO THE LWR MS VLY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS ON THURSDAY WILL FEATURE
   A DEEP CYCLONE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER
   RIDGE COVERING THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...AND ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE
   MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. WHILE DIURNAL TSTMS ARE
   LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED AMIDST THE COLD CORE LOW CIRCULATION IN THE
   EAST...THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED STORMS
   WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND LOW...FROM THE
   INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES SSEWD TO THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR
   MS VLY.
   
   ...PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LWR MS VLY LATE...
   MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING AN OVERNIGHT MCS EVOLVING
   ACROSS KS BY LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
   IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST QPF/UVV SIGNALS...ENSEMBLE FCSTS
   WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION
   BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE OVER ERN KS/WRN MO. LATEST LOW
   TO MID LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORTS A NW-SE
   ORIENTED ZONE OF POTENTIAL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS
   FOR ASCENT...AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST ONE SEWD-TRACKING TSTM
   COMPLEX...INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 FCST.
   
   MCV LIKELY RESULTING FROM MORNING MCS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT
   DOWNSTREAM AS THE IMPULSE TRACKS SEWD IN 30-40KT NWLY FLOW. IN
   FACT...NAM SUGGESTS THAT MCS/SHORT WAVE MAY PRODUCE MODEST HEIGHT
   FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF OK/MO/AR BY THURSDAY EVENING. STORMS MAY
   INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX AS MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WARMS AND
   DESTABILIZES. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE
   ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK...SEWD ACROSS AR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
   THREAT MAY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY BY LATE IN THE DAY OR
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...STRONG HEATING BENEATH STOUT CAP WILL OCCUR
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NWRN TX...ACROSS WRN OK...AND INTO
   KS. MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR HEATING AND LIFT TO OVERCOME THE CAP
   AND RESULT IN STORM INITIATION MAY BE ACROSS KS WHERE MCS OUTFLOW
   WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED. POST-OUTFLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS OF ERN CO WOULD ALSO AID EROSION OF THE CAP THIS REGION.
   ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS
   THE PANHANDLE. STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY EVENING
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
   INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH.
   
   ONCE STORMS FORM...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...FROM ERN CO
   INTO KS...AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK...WILL SUPPORT A
   FEW SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW ACROSS HIGH PLAINS AND KS COULD
   FURTHER SUPPORT HIGH SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION... AND A
   CHANCE FOR TORNADOES NEAR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...IN ADDITION TO VERY
   LARGE HAIL. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
   OVERNIGHT MCS TO EVOLVE FROM LATE EVENING ACTIVITY AND SPREAD SEWD
   INTO OK THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREATS WITH LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY. PARTS OF THE PLAINS MAY
   REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES/MDT RISK IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS AS STORM MODE AND EVOLUTION BECOME BETTER DEFINED
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
   DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WA/ORE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
   WITH SPEED MAX MOVING INLAND ACROSS NRN CA INTO NWRN NV. ASSOCIATED
   HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
   SPREAD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO WRN MT AFTER 00Z...ALONG WITH
   INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
   AND MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
   SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS
   HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...AND ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD TRACK
   DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL MT. FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
   MAINTAIN A SEVERE MCS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NRN/CNTRL MT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/15/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z