SPC AC 170549
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 45
   WSW ORL GNV 25 NE VLD ATL 10 ENE AHN CLT DAN 40 S RIC ORF 35 E ECG.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
   RRT FAR ABR PHP 50 NW CDR 30 SW GCC COD BIL GDV 75 NE ISN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS CLL 50 WNW AUS 50
   SSE DRT ...CONT... 70 SSW P07 45 SW INK CVS LIC CYS DGW VEL DPG ELY
   TVL UKI 35 W MFR 15 N BLI ...CONT... 45 E INL HIB ATY OFK STJ UMN
   ARG GWO LUL 15 SSE MOB PFN MAI DHN AUO RMG HSS EKN PSB ABE 25 ENE
   NEL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....
   
   MODELS INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
   ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  A
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF PACIFIC
   COAST TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.  ANOTHER
   UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL FOLLOW SUIT...REACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS
   EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IMPULSES WITHIN STRONG JET
   WEST OF TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN SLOW DIGGING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
   COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
   
   LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
   THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
   ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHARPEN FROM THE NORTHERN
   MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG
   DIGGING OF SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LARGER SCALE EASTERN U.S.
   TROUGH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
   COAST.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ROTATING OFF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
   ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY/TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
   CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTAL PLAINS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN MOIST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. SUFFICIENT RECOVERY IS
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND TO SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
   SATURDAY...AS STRONG HEATING APPEARS LIKELY IN THE LEE OF THE
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
   
   BY PEAK HEATING...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG
   ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.  AIDED BY
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ..SCATTERED
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.  ACTIVITY MAY
   BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZES...BUT ADDITIONAL
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALONG
   SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH/EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES SOUTHEAST OF
   APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS ARE NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   SUPPORT RISK FOR DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ...ROCKIES/PLAINS...
   MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO CAP MUCH OF THE PLAINS
   SATURDAY.  EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS...BUT BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST
   FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH NORTH
   DAKOTA...PERHAPS PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  THOUGH THIS REGION
   STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF 100 KT HIGH
   LEVEL JET NOSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...MODELS SUGGEST
   MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKENED BY INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE.
   
   
   SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
   FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
   LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY NEAR
   THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
   REGIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA.  GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CAPE
   RANGING UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND NEAR OR
   ABOVE 2000 ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE FRONT...SHEAR PROFILES ON
   SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS SOUTHWEST
   /CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION
   OF LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. IF THIS OCCURS... RISK OF
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS/ DIMINISHES
   ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/17/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z