SPC AC 040611
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE
   ROW 25 E LVS TAD 45 ESE FCL BFF AIA 50 SW MHN MCK DDC GAG 40 SE CDS
   70 NW ABI 50 NNW HOB 55 NNE ROW.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
   HUL LCI MSV EKN CRW HTS LUK 35 W DAY 30 SSE DTW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE BPT CLL JCT
   DRT ...CONT... ELP TCS 4SL GUC ASE EGE 50 NE RKS IDA 40 NNE 27U 3DU
   LWT MLS GDV SDY 80 NNW ISN ...CONT... 95 N GFK DVL MBG 50 ENE PIR
   SUX OMA EMP BVO FYV HRO STL CGX MKE VOK EAU 45 N BRD RRT ...CONT...
   ACY 10 WNW NHK RIC 35 ENE RWI 55 SE EWN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN NEW ENGLAND TO
   MID/UPPER OH VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PATTERN SHIFT UNDERWAY BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD WILL FEATURE FALLING
   HEIGHTS ACROSS GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY REGION...AND RIDGING ACROSS NRN
   HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE DETAILS ARE
   UNCERTAIN...BUT VERY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG 04/00Z
   DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 03/21Z SREF MEMBERS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
   THIS PATTERN.  PHASING OF SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS --
   POSSIBLY INCLUDING MVC FROM DAY-1 CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES -- SHOULD
   LEAD TO TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SEWD ACROSS SWRN GREAT LAKES
   TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX REGION.
   AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO
   NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS...EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS KY TO
   ARKLATEX.  FRONTAL POSITION FARTHER W THROUGH W TX AND NM WILL BE
   STRONGLY MODULATED BY PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.
   
   ...NERN CONUS...
   DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT DAY IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS
   FROM OH VALLEY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINATION OF
   LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES TROUGH...MOIST ADVECTION
   AND DIURNAL/DIABATIC SFC HEATING.  ASCENT ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT
   COMBINED WITH WEAK CINH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF
   CONVECTION BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...BOTH OVER WRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK
   AREA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF ONT.  MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH SWD EXTENT AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT...MAKING SRN EDGE OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL RATHER
   NEBULOUS.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   THROUGH MOST OF TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN.  MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z WITH LOSS OF SFC
   HEATING.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   NW-FLOW SEVERE EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   EXPECTED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM ERN CO THROUGH ERN NM. 
   ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL SPEEDS MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SUFFICIENT
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWS MOVING
   SEWD TO SSEWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF
   MOTION IS FCST -- TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER EVENTS OVER
   WRN TX/NM UNDER WEAK-MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT -- KEEPING BULK OF SEVERE
   POTENTIAL OVER HIGH PLAINS EVEN AFTER DARK.  DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYERS ARE EXPECTED  IN INFLOW REGION OF CONVECTION THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON...AIDING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD CONGEAL INTO RELATIVELY DENSE CLUSTER OR MCS AND MOVE SSEWD
   OR SWD OVER SRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA AFTER DARK.  MORE SPECIFIC
   CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS REGION -- INCLUDING
   MOST PROBABLE TRACK OF EVENING/NOCTURNAL MCS -- WILL DEPEND STRONGLY
   ON POSITION/ORIENTATION OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BY LATE DAY-1
   CONVECTION.
   
   ...SRN LOW PLAINS...
   MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL MAY MOVE SEWD FROM
   SERN CO/TX PANHANDLE VICINITY LATE DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY-2 PERIODS. 
   REF DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR FCST DETAILS.  SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
   LINGER PAST 05/12Z AS ACTIVITY ENTERS PARTS OF NW TX...AND/OR RED
   RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN OK AND N-CENTRAL TX.  PRIND SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT MORNING AS
   1. BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLES...CAUSING WEAKENING LLJ AND DIMINISHING
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND
   2. ACTIVITY MOVES INTO REGIME OF WEAKER MID/UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL
   FLOWS AND SMALLER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/04/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z