SPC AC 080558
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
   MOT 45 WNW JMS MBG 25 E REJ 25 SSE MLS 60 SSW GGW 65 NW GGW.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
   PNS 30 SSW CEW 35 N DHN 30 WSW MCN 55 S AGS 40 ENE SAV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ACY 15 W TTN 20
   NW ELM 35 NNW BUF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 30 SW ESC
   25 WSW CID 30 W HUT 45 NE PVW 20 SE BGS 25 S SJT 50 NE JCT 20 WNW
   ACT 20 N PRX 40 WNW HOT 20 S MEM 35 NE CHA 60 SW RIC WAL ...CONT...
   20 WNW ELP 35 ENE DRO 30 SW CAG 25 N RWL 25 NE RIW 45 ESE JAC 15 NNW
   MLD 60 WNW TWF 25 NNE BKE 20 SW S06 25 N CTB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN GULF
   COASTAL STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINES
   
   ...ERN GULF COAST STATES...
   LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST CENTER GUIDANCE PLACES HURRICANE DENNIS IN
   THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY WITH THE CENTER DRIFTING NNWWD
   TOWARD THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE OUTER BANDS OF
   DENNIS MOVING NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING EXPANDING
   INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...GA...AL AND SC DURING THE EVENING AND
   OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE
   HURRICANE SHOW STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO
   850 MB WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2 OVER MOST OF
   FL...SRN GA AND SE AL DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   A FEW TORNADOES WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE OUTER
   RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
   EXIST OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA EXPANDING NWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
   THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED IN THE MID
   TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED
   ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL STATES.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO EXPAND
   NEWD ON SATURDAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SW FLOW WILL
   LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CREATING ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED AHEAD OF ANY
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR
   EVENING HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
   ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ON A COLD FRONT AS IT
   MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
   REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY...LARGE
   TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
   HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT.
   
   ...WEST TX/ERN NM...
   THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-RIDGE SHOULD BE ORIENTED SSW TO NNE FROM THE
   SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN CO. EAST OF THE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS...FLOW ALOFT
   WILL BE NLY ACROSS W TX AND ERN NM CREATING STRONGLY VEERING LOW TO
   MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL
   SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF
   THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY 21Z SAT SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY
   WITH INVERTED V-PROFILES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. THIS
   WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/HAIL
   POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER CONCERNING
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN NM AND WEST TX DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW
   ALOFT SUGGESTING A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
   AN UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
   SATURDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT
   IN SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE UPPER-LOW SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL
   POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND
   THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LOW.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/08/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z