Jul 13, 2005 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Wed Jul 13 07:05:33 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 130704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ELO 20 N STC 15 NNE FSD 25 E AKO LIC 10 N LHX 25 SW GCK TOP 25 S MKE 65 ESE OSC ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 30 NW SOW 30 NE U17 30 SSE EVW 40 W BPI 20 ENE JAC 55 E BIL 65 NNE ISN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINES ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL DRIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL LIKELY FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL ND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD AND EXPAND SWD INTO NRN SD BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION 21Z THURSDAY SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE. INVERTED V-SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THREAT MAY EXIST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS CONVECTION EXPANDS IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVES EWD INTO NW MN. PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... AN UPPER-TROUGH IN CNTRL CANADA WILL SLIDE ESEWD ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS FORECAST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |