SPC AC 190607
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE
   APN 20 WNW HTL 40 SSW MKE 15 SSE DBQ 45 NNE DSM 30 ENE SUX 25 ENE
   FSD 50 SSW AXN 45 WSW CMX 125 NNW ANJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE COD 40 WSW COD
   20 SSE DLN 45 W MSO 75 ENE 63S 45 N FCA 60 W GTF 30 N LVM 45 WNW SHR
   35 W SHR 30 SSE COD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 SE RAL 10 N
   RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 NNE OXR 25 SSW BFL 20 NNE BFL 45 ESE FAT 55 NE MER
   30 ENE SAC 40 SE RBL 35 NE RBL 60 E MHS 50 SE 4LW 70 NNW WMC 30 SW
   OWY 10 SSE EKO 55 NW ELY 30 WNW ELY 65 WSW ELY 30 NNW DRA 35 WSW LAS
   45 NNW EED 60 SSE SGU 45 W 4HV 15 ENE VEL 35 NE CAG 15 NNE FCL 25
   NNW LIC 35 WSW LHX 30 S RTN 35 ENE 4CR 35 W ELP ...CONT... 35 NW DRT
   40 NNW DAL 40 NW FYV 15 ENE SZL 10 S LWD 25 S OLU 50 ENE ANW 20 SW
   ABR 20 W FAR 15 NW INL ...CONT... 20 W CLE 20 W EKN 40 NNE RIC 15 N
   WAL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND
   UPPER GRTLKS REGION...
   
   ...UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GRTLKS REGION...
   LARGELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON WED ACROSS THE NRN
   TIER OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS ALONG THE CANADIAN
   BORDER.  A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW APPROACHING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
   COAST SHOULD DIG SEWD INTO SRN ALTA...THEN STREAK EWD INTO NWRN ONT
   BY WED AFTN.  SRN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE THE UPPER MS
   VLY FROM LATE TUE INTO WED EVE.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
   SETTLE SEWD BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE...REACHING THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION
    AND UPPER MS VLY BY LATE WED.
   
   BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF MN LATE TUE
   /DAY 1 PERIOD/ AND BE ONGOING EARLY WED ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT
   LLJ.  IT APPEARS THAT THE LLJ/NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
   WEAKEN AND MOVE NWD INTO ONT...IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. 
   THUS...THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SHOULD 
   BE LEFT TO WARM CONSIDERABLY.  PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE...INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSOLATION WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  
   
   THOUGH THE MAIN PVA WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD INTO CANADA...H5 FLOW
   REMAINS CYCLONIC SWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PERSISTENT
   CONVERGENCE...ALBEIT WEAK...ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT
   AND ANTICIPATED HEATING WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY FOR SURFACE
   BASED TSTM INITIATION. STORMS WILL DEVELOP MOST RAPIDLY IN THE
   WEAKER CAP OVER THE UPPER GRTLKS...WITH LESSER COVERAGE FARTHER W.  
   
   
   MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.  BUT...WSWLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT
   SHOULD EVENTUALLY AID IN EVOLUTION INTO SW-NE ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS
   THAT COULD BOW AS THEY MATURE AND TRANSLATE ACROSS WI TOWARD MI
   OVERNIGHT.  SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME/EWD EXTENT.  
   
   THE WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN BLOWING FROM A HIGH LAPSE RATES
   ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR BACKBUILDING TSTMS LATER
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/SRN MN.  THESE STORMS WOULD MAINLY POSE A
   LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   
   ...SRN AZ...
   AS THE UPPER HIGH ELONGATES E-W...ENELY H7-H5 FLOW WILL LIKELY
   INCREASE TO AOA 25 KTS ACROSS SRN AZ.  BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...OWING TO THE UPSWING IN
   DAILY CONVECTION SINCE THE WEEKEND.  TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN PROPAGATE SWWD TOWARD PHX/TUS DURING
   THE EVE WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK
   MAY BE NEEDED...PENDING DAY 1 TSTM EVOLUTION AND ANTICIPATED
   COVERAGE. 
   
   ...S TX...
   REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL MOVE WWD INTO NERN MEXICO THROUGH WED.  WIND
   FIELDS/SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE STRONGER WINDS COLLAPSE TO
   THE CENTER.  BUT...NRN PERIPHERY OF OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL ROTATE
   ACROSS S TX WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/19/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z