SPC AC 160559
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
   REJ 40 WNW JMS 20 ESE GFK 45 SW INL 25 ENE HIB 35 SSE DLH 30 ENE MSP
   15 NE FSD OLU 30 W MHK 20 NE P28 45 NNW GAG 10 NW EHA 35 ESE CDR 45
   WSW RAP 15 NE REJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 30 W BLH
   35 E BFL 35 ESE SCK 35 WSW SVE 50 S 4LW 90 WNW OWY 50 WSW SUN 50 N
   SUN 50 S S80 40 WNW PDT 20 N YKM 65 NW 4OM ...CONT... 95 ENE CMX 20
   SW IMT 15 N VOK 25 ENE ALO 20 NNW OTM 30 WNW UIN 15 SW BLV 25 WSW
   OWB 5I3 10 ESE CHO 35 SSW WAL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS
   INTO PORTIONS OF MN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGHING WILL EMERGE OVER THE WRN
   U.S./PLAINS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE EVENING SATELLITE
   IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER CIRCULATION/SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER SRN CA.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD EJECT EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
   ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
   WARM ADVECTION BECOMES THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR EXPECTED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM IN CA LEADS CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL SCENARIO
   OF A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY
   EVENING.  IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHILE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING SPREADS INTO
   THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASED HIGH LEVEL FLOW.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND NEB YIELD SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES ON
   THE ORDER OF 35-40KT...WITH HIGH LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60KT. AS
   LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN
   ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS.  AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
   SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP IN THE ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING
   ALONG/EAST OF WELL DEFINED LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE ACROSS WRN
   NEB/KS...LIKELY BY 21Z.  ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WITH UPPER TROUGH.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
   DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES...AND STRONGER SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS KS IN RESPONSE TO
   LOWER LATITUDE SYSTEM. EVEN SO...LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL SHARPEN
   DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES WARM SOUTH OF
   SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM SERN MT INTO ERN SD.  IT APPEARS CONVECTION MAY
   BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND DUE TO
   SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION.  AS LLJ VEERS INTO MN IT APPEARS EARLY
   MORNING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
   DIURNAL HEATING ENHANCES INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. 
   WEAK INHIBITION MAY ENCOURAGE MULTI-CELL DEVELOPMENT SWWD INTO ERN
   SD BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ..DARROW.. 08/16/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z