SPC AC 031737
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 20 E U17
   30 NW CAG 40 ENE RWL 15 NW DGW 45 S GCC 25 SE SHR 35 W SHR 20 SE COD
   55 NW LND 10 WNW BPI 60 ENE MLD 35 NNE BYI 35 NW BOI 25 WSW BKE 25 S
   ALW 20 SSE GEG 95 N 3TH ...CONT... 65 ENE CMX 40 NE EAU 25 WSW MKT
   20 N FSD 40 SSW MHE 50 WNW LBF 20 S AKO 35 S LIC 10 ENE LHX 25 S LAA
   15 SW GCK 25 NE RSL 10 NNE LNK 25 SSW FOD 40 WSW ALO 40 W CID 15 SW
   OTM 30 NNW SZL 35 SSE CNU 40 SW ADM 40 S SEP 15 NE AUS 10 S PSX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 20 NE BTR
   35 ENE MCB 25 W SEM 40 NNE MCN CRE.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   CORRECTED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK TO ADJUST THUNDER LINE IN NE WY
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT ALLOWING
   SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS. AS
   SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
   AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
   
   AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AS A COLD
   FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT AND ND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. AS
   DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY MIDDAY IN
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN SD...ERN WY AND NRN CO WITH THE CONVECTION
   SPREADING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER NORTHEAST...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS REMAINING CAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
   CIN ABOVE 100 J/KG AND 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING +12C ACROSS MOST OF
   THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   IN THE NRN PLAINS UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. IF
   ENOUGH ASCENT CAN SPREAD NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED STORMS WOULD INITIATE AND MOVE EWD INTO MN DURING THE
   EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CAP INVERSION MAY PROBLEMATIC
   MINIMIZING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
   
   AT THE MID-LEVELS...A JET MAX LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
   CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
   WRN DAKOTAS. IF STORMS INITIATE...THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE
   THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. MARGINALLY
   SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE
   INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE
   STEEPEST.
   
   IF THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS SOONER THAN EXPECTED...CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE WOULD BE GREATER. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR
   A SLIGHT RISK WHICH MAY BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/03/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z