SPC AC 191736
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
   FMY 25 S VRB.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
   ACY 15 W SBY 10 ESE DCA 35 WNW ILG 30 NE ABE 30 SSW PSF 10 NNW BAF
   BOS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW EKA 40 SW MHS
   60 E MHS 75 WNW WMC 75 WNW OWY 15 SSW SUN 30 W IDA 20 SSE JAC 15 SSW
   LND 35 NW RWL 50 WSW LAR 15 ENE 4FC 35 S PUB 10 SW RTN 15 SW LVS 70
   NW TCS 50 ESE DUG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 20 WSW ABY
   45 S LUL 25 W MCB 45 NW ESF 15 W ELD 20 S HOT 60 SE HRO 60 SE VIH 30
   WNW EVV 20 SSE DAY 35 ESE CAK 20 WSW BFD 30 SSE ROC 35 WNW SYR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SRQ 10 NNW
   VRB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN NEW ENGLAND TO DELMARVA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MIDWEST/GREAT
   LAKES REGION...WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
   ATLANTIC REGIONS ON TUESDAY. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS
   IMPULSE WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM THE DELMARVA REGION NWD WHERE 12H
   500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30-60M ARE FORECAST. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING
   THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START OUT THE PERIOD ALIGNED FROM NERN NY SWWD
   TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE NRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT...ASSOCIATED
   WITH STRONG FORCING AND FLOW...WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW
   ENGLAND...NJ...AND MUCH OF DELMARVA...AND THEN OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE
   TUESDAY. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS AND EXTEND FROM ERN NC TO THE TN VALLEY BY TUESDAY
   EVENING.
   
   AN ANOMALOUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SURGE NWD FROM SRN CA
   TO CNTRL CA AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL
   OCCUR AS AN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
   WEST COAST.
   
   T.S. RITA IS FORECAST TO ATTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY AND
   MOVE INTO THE FL STRAITS ON TUESDAY.
   
   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND TO DELMARVA...
   LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO THE
   LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY.
   DESPITE THE POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS IN DESTABILIZATION WITH THE EARLIER
   ONSET OF CONVECTION...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT...COUPLED WITH 40-50KT MEAN LAYER FLOW AND
   40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...COULD SUPPORT A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN/TSTM
   BAND WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LINE. THE
   RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON IF POCKETS OF
   GREATER PREFRONTAL DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...STRONGER INSTABILITY BUT SLIGHTLY WEAKER FORCING CAN
   BE EXPECTED FROM NRN NJ SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AREA.
   NONETHELESS...LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL
   INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KT WILL
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...IN ADDITION TO
   LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION.
   
   ...NC TO TN VLY...
   FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL ACT ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS. WHILE DIVERGENT MID/UPPER FLOW WILL FURTHER
   SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY WEAK
   SHEAR SUGGESTS MULTICELL STORM MODE WITH SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
   LIKELY. HOWEVER...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.
   
   ...CNTRL CA...
   AN UNUSUAL SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED BY A STRONG
   MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO PRODUCE POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
   PARTS OF CNTRL CA DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF MLCAPE ON THE
   ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG APPEAR REASONABLE IN LATEST GUIDANCE AND
   SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL. FORECAST OF GENERALLY WEAK
   SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CURRENTLY PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER
   PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE. HOWEVER...IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN
   DEVELOP...A SLGT RISK MAY BE INTRODUCED IN A LATER OUTLOOK.
   
   ...S FL...
   CURRENT NHC/TPC TRACK OF RITA WILL BRING A HURRICANE INTO THE FL
   STRAITS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD PLACE PARTS OF SRN/SERN FL
   WITHIN THE RIGHT SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE WHERE INCREASING LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL TORNADOES WITHIN FEEDER BANDS
   SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/19/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

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