SPC AC 231754
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
   CNK 45 E MCK 30 NNE MCK 20 ESE LBF 30 WNW BUB 15 SE FSD 20 ENE FRM
   40 SE RST 25 ESE ALO 25 ENE DSM 40 ESE OMA 40 NNW CNK.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
   GLS 55 E CLL 35 S TYR 35 ESE PRX 40 W HOT 35 SW PBF 55 E MLU MCB 40
   SE HUM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PSX 30 ESE ACT
   30 ENE MLC 10 NE SGF 25 ENE SZL 30 NE MKC 35 SW RSL 30 SSW GCK 50
   WNW EHA 20 SSE RTN 35 ENE GUP 40 SW GCN 60 WSW ELY 20 NE MLD 30 SSW
   LVM 25 WSW SHR 25 W REJ 25 WNW FAR 30 E INL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W BUF MGW 15 SE
   EKN 20 ENE LYH 50 WSW RIC 30 SE RIC 35 SE WAL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY
   REGION...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS E TX AND MUCH OF LA INTO
   SRN AR...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HURRICANE RITA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD ACROSS E TX THIS
   PERIOD...BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH A
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. 
   
   MEANWHILE...POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
   SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD...THOUGH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES ARE
   FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH BELT OF STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG SERN SIDE OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. AT THE
   SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE INITIALLY FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN
   DAKOTAS SSWWD INTO NERN CO SHOULD MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS FEATURE
   SHOULD LIE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO KS.  THOUGH
   CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION S OF THIS BOUNDARY...LIFT NEAR/N OF
   FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
   
   ...MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...
   STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
   THIS REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 50 KT
   SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  THOUGH THIS JET -- AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
   -- SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY...STORMS WILL LIKELY
   PERSIST/SHIFT EWD WITH TIME ACROSS SD/NEB AND INTO IA/MN/WI.  
   
   AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN CO/SERN
   WY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT AS WEAK UPPER
   VORT MAX MOVES NEWD ACROSS CO. STORMS SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND EXPAND
   IN COVERAGE EWD ACROSS NEB AHEAD OF VORT MAX/INVOF FRONT THROUGH
   EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS AND WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
   LIFT INCREASE.
   
   ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FORCING...MID-LEVEL JET AOA 40 KT
   ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD ALSO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  RESULTING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS...THOUGH IT
   APPEARS ATTM THAT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY BE HAIL WITH ELEVATED
   STORMS N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH WARM SECTOR LIKELY TO REMAIN
   CAPPED.  HOWEVER...ANY STORMS WHICH COULD BREACH THE CAP AND DEVELOP
   IN A MORE NEARLY SURFACE-BASED ENVIRONMENT ALONG OR JUST N OF FRONT
   WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A
   TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER/MCS N OF FRONT
   WHICH SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS NEB TOWARD IA AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS
   THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
   
   ...E TX/LA/SRN AR...
   BASED ON LATEST DATA AND CURRENT NHC FORECASTS...HURRICANE RITA IS
   FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THIS PERIOD
   OVER THE UPPER TX COAST.  THE STORM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
   NWD ACROSS E TX THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
   AS STORM MOVES NWD...STRONG WIND FIELD WILL SPREAD NWD TOWARD SRN AR
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS
   COMBINATION WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH SMALL/LOW-TOPPED
   SUPERCELLS WITHIN BANDS AROUND RITAS CENTER.  NWD-SPREADING THREAT
   SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
   FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 25/12Z GIVEN STRENGTH OF THIS
   HURRICANE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/23/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z