SPC AC 301704
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1204 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
   OKC 10 ESE PNC 25 NE BVO 50 ENE TUL 30 W FSM 25 N PRX 40 NNE DAL 45
   ESE SPS 15 NE FSI 20 NNW OKC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BLI 50 WNW YKM
   35 ESE SLE 40 WNW ACV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BRO 10 SW ALI 50
   N SAT 30 W BWD 70 NNW ABI 40 SW GAG 25 ENE DDC 50 WNW CNK 40 NNW FNB
   15 WSW LWD 30 N COU 10 E TBN 55 SE HRO 30 WSW HOT 35 N SHV 35 S MLU
   55 NNE HEZ 55 WSW BNA 25 NNW CHA LGC 60 SW AGS 30 NNW CRE 65 E ECG.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK
   AND N TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 2
   PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND
   RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES...NERN STATES
   AND SERN CANADA.  AS THIS OCCURS...SRN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
   NEWD WHILE BEING ENTRAINED INTO STRONGER POLAR BRANCH OF 
   WESTERLIES.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG STRONG...SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
   DEVELOPING BENEATH PRIMARY UPPER JET AXIS.  MEANWHILE...WEAK LEE
   TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SWD THROUGH THE
   HIGH PLAINS.  
   
   ...OK/TX...
   
   MCS OR SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING
   ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK INTO N TX WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG LLJ AXIS. 
   DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM COUPLED
   WITH NEWD MIGRATING LLJ SHOULD SUSTAIN SOME OF THESE STORMS THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE DAY OVER NERN OK INTO ERN KS AND WRN MO.  IT APPEARS
   THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST TO THE S OF
   THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WHERE STRONGER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW/MID 60S DEWPOINTS NOW
   ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY.  PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF
   UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE NWD WITH 60-65 F
   DEWPOINTS EXPECTED INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK BY SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON.  WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND 500 MB
   TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -10 C...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG AT SOME
   LOCATIONS.
   
   PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS SWD DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN THAT STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING NE OF
   REGION.  INSPECTION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CAP WILL BE
   RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
   CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE
   SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION.  SHOULD STORMS
   DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED WITHIN THIS REGION OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEARS OF 30-35 KTS/ WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A FEW
   ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/30/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z