SPC AC 160500
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2005
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E OSC 30 S MKG 35
   NW TBN 20 SE STJ 15 W DSM 30 W RHI 70 NNE CMX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW VBG 25 NW BFL
   50 NNE NID 40 E SGU 75 SSW 4BL 40 WNW CNM 85 SSE MRF.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP CLOSED LOW TAKING SHAPE WITHIN SRN SEGMENT OF STRONG WEST COAST
   TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW BY EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE COAST OF
   SRN CA. A PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
   THE CENTER OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL DRIFT WELL SWWD OF THE CHANNEL
   ISLANDS BEFORE MAKING A TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND MOVING ACROSS
   NRN BAJA/SRN CA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
   
   MEANWHILE...THE NRN SEGMENT OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BREAK AWAY
   AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SPREAD EAST FROM THE NRN
   PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA. LARGE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE
   ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S. AND NWRN GULF EFFECTIVELY RESTRICTS MOISTURE
   RETURN INTO THE CNTRL U.S./MS VALLEY AREA AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT TSTM
   POTENTIAL WITH THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE.
   
   ...SRN CA/AZ...
   MODEST TO STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO MORE
   RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM BAJA NWD ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ. DESPITE
   SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S F AND MID LEVEL COOLING... INSTABILITY
   IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO
   EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED INSOLATION. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF
   STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND GREATER DESTABILIZATION COULD DEVELOP
   IF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADS NWD FROM THE GULF OF CA AND ACROSS
   THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. IF THIS OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HEATING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A COUPLE OF MORE INTENSE TSTMS. STRONG
   SLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED
   LOW COULD FURTHER LEAD TO FAST CELL MOTION AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAL COVERAGE OF
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
   REGARDING THE FORMATION OF DRY SLOT AND STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IT
   IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 10/16/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z