Oct 22, 2005 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 22 05:36:46 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051022 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20051022 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 220525
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 50 W SAD
   55 SSE IGM 35 WNW IGM 10 SSW SGU 30 NNW PGA 45 WSW ALS 40 W RTN 40
   SE LVS 45 NNE ROW 40 NNW MAF 35 SE MAF 50 SE P07.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 20 NNW
   DAB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...FL...
   
   HURRICANE WILMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH SRN FL UNTIL LATE IN THE
   DAY2 PERIOD...OR PERHAPS ON DAY3.  AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH
   UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATION TO
   WARRANT A RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS SRN FL.  FOR MORE INFO ON WILMA
   REF LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST FROM NHC.
   
   ...SWRN U.S...
   
   SRN CA UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EJECT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS AZ INTO THE SRN
   ROCKIES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COOLING AND
   STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ INTO
   NM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  DOWNSTREAM...WARM
   ADVECTION ATOP COOLER UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS MAY ENHANCE
   ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX SUGGEST WEAK ELEVATED
   BUOYANCY IF LIFTING A PARCEL BETWEEN 800-700MB...LIKELY SUFFICIENT
   FOR LIGHTING WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
   INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 10/22/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z