Oct 22, 2005 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Sat Oct 22 05:36:46 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 220525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 50 W SAD 55 SSE IGM 35 WNW IGM 10 SSW SGU 30 NNW PGA 45 WSW ALS 40 W RTN 40 SE LVS 45 NNE ROW 40 NNW MAF 35 SE MAF 50 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 20 NNW DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... HURRICANE WILMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH SRN FL UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY2 PERIOD...OR PERHAPS ON DAY3. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATION TO WARRANT A RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS SRN FL. FOR MORE INFO ON WILMA REF LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST FROM NHC. ...SWRN U.S... SRN CA UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EJECT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS AZ INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COOLING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ INTO NM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DOWNSTREAM...WARM ADVECTION ATOP COOLER UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX SUGGEST WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY IF LIFTING A PARCEL BETWEEN 800-700MB...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTING WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 10/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |