SPC AC 301734
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CST SUN OCT 30 2005
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E
   CRP 10 SSW NIR 35 NW COT 20 N DRT 35 SSW ABI 45 W SPS 20 S MLC 10
   WNW DEQ IER 50 S LCH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FMY 35 ENE
   VRB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW 6R6 45 N BGS 20
   NNW PVW 45 ENE BGD 35 E CNU 25 SE BRL 25 NE MLI 15 SW DBQ 25 WSW ALO
   10 ESE OTG 30 NNE RWF 15 S BFW 30 ESE CMX 30 N APN 25 SSE OSC 45 SSW
   JXN 25 SSE MVN 60 ENE PBF 45 NNE HEZ 50 SE BVE.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN 2/3 OF
   TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
   AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND INTO DAY TWO AS
   IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.  VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO
   INTENSIFY WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS TX
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
   INITIALLY EXTEND FROM THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO
   OK/W TX.  THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE STEADILY SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...ERN 2/3 OF TX...
   THOUGH COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE COUNTRY
   WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
   THE PERIOD...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT
   FROM OK/AR NEWD.
   
   FURTHER S INTO TX...RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 60S/ COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES AT
   MID-LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY
   AFTERNOON INVOF FRONT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
   
   THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT FORECAST TO BE EXCESSIVELY
   STRONG...LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS
   SPREADING EWD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY
   VEERING/SHEARED FLOW WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING
   STORMS.  THEREFORE...EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE ERN 2/3 OF TX -- MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING.  INTENSITY OF CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT --
   SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS AIRMASS SLOWLY BECOMES LESS
   UNSTABLE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 10/30/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z