Nov 20, 2005 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Sun Nov 20 06:23:39 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 200622 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW CTY 35 SE VLD 35 NE SSI 45 SE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PFN 30 SW MCN 35 ESE AND 35 ENE RZZ 30 SE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF FL... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. WILL PROMOTE PRIMARY FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE WILL SPREAD SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF FL THROUGH MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER FORCING WITH THIS IMPULSE...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM AND DEVELOP NEWD ALONG A WARM FRONT/COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NERN GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO APPALACHEE BAY FL BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE/REDEVELOP TO NEAR CHS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FROM THERE THE LOW WILL LIKELY UNDERGO EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING WHILE TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TO A POSITION EAST OF NJ BY 12Z TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT SHOULD TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF FL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...FL... MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS SHOULD COVER MUCH OF FL BY MONDAY MORNING WITH BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION MAY DEVELOP WITH HEATING OF THE DAY IN AREAS BETWEEN THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF FL MAY LIFT INTO SRN GA AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS INLAND FROM THE GULF. AS THE LOW SPREADS NEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...TSTMS IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT MODESTLY TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT COULD RESULT IN A POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT EVOLVING IF ACTIVITY CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. WEAK INHIBITION AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF FL SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /SBCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG/. GUIDANCE FROM NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS AREAS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT EXIST THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR WITH SSWLY 850MB FLOW INCREASING TO OVER 50KT ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM MODE STILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL DURING THE DAY. MOST LIKELY SEVERE TSTM SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE THAT CONVECTION MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 50-75KT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST. ..CARBIN.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |