SPC AC 250631
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE
   CRP 25 WNW VCT 45 SW CLL 30 S LFK 20 SSW MSY 65 S BVE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW BLI 30 ESE AST
   20 ESE OTH 50 WNW 4BK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BYI JAC 10 ESE RWL
   GUC 40 ESE FMN PGA CDC ENV BYI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LRD JCT SPS 20
   NW BVO 15 WNW TOP 25 WNW CDJ FAM MKL 10 S SEM 45 SSE PNS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT/SAT EVE ACROSS TX/LA
   COASTAL AREAS....
   
   DEEP...COLD CORE LOW...EMBEDDED WITHIN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN BRANCH OF
   POLAR WESTERLIES...IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES REGION.  MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY
   ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY...AND...BY EARLY SATURDAY...
   BROADER SCALE POLAR VORTEX WILL BECOME CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE
   GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES...ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
   
   AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG PACIFIC JET IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
   SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S...SUPPORTING AN
   AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT NOSES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
   INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FORCING A COUPLE OF DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES
   EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
   INTO CONFLUENT REGIME OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PERHAPS THE MOST
   SIGNIFICANT OF THE LATTER PAIR...WEAKENING SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW/SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM
   TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...MODELS SUGGEST RAPID
   MODIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE
   ROCKIES...WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS ALL BUT...PERHAPS...PARTS
   OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.  STRONG SURFACE
   CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW TONGUE FROM
   THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL
   MODIFYING...THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS/LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
   
   ...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD GENERATE CONSIDERABLE
   CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SATURDAY. 
   DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT
   OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER AREAS INLAND
   OF THE UPPER TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST MAY BE BASED ABOVE SHALLOW
   SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIMITED.
   
   IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COASTAL AREAS...POTENTIAL APPEARS BETTER FOR
   STORMS ROOTED IN MORE MOIST AND SLIGHTLY WARMER/DEEPER BOUNDARY
   LAYER. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS...WHICH COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AT
   12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH STRONGER FORCING
   THROUGH THE DAY.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN...
   STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF DIGGING JET WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
   
   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
   BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
   SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS...
   GENERALLY WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/25/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z