SPC AC 030545
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2005
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
   7R4 30 SE LCH 10 NNW LCH 10 N POE 40 NNW ESF 45 E RMG 20 W AND 30
   ESE AND 30 WSW CAE 25 SSE AGS 10 NW VDI 40 ENE ABY 15 WNW PNS 10 NW
   HUM 15 SSE 7R4.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BRO 25 SW ALI 25
   S BAZ 25 W TYR 35 SE HOT 25 NNW TRI 50 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ENE JAX
   35 NNE CTY 35 S AAF.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
   STATES AND FAR SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   
   ...GULF COAST STATES/FAR SRN APPALACHIANS...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY DIG SWD
   INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...A COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND MID-MS VALLEY INTO
   THE GULF COAST STATES AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
   THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   THE LATEST GFS RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE CONCERNING THE
   TIMING AND POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT NOW
   APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MOVE FASTER AND BE POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTH
   THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE
   IN THE 60S F WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG BY MIDDAY ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW
   MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...SFC HEATING COMBINED
   WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN
   PLACE SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
   THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT ENOUGH
   CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO KEEP A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REGION.
   HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE WEATHER
   COVERAGE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 12/03/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z