SPC AC 141736
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
   PNS 10 N DHN 25 NNE ABY 35 SSW VDI JAX 65 SSW CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW HUM 45 W GZH
   0A8 ANB AHN DAN 10 SW DCA BWI 15 NE PHL 20 SSW JFK 40 SSE ISP.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN
   GULF STATES....
   
   DOWNSTREAM OF EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCK...BROAD CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO
   EVOLVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS FEATURE WILL
   PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND.  CENTER OF MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   LATER TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING
   THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ON ITS PERIPHERY.
   
   IN THE SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG
   MID/UPPER JET WILL NOSE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN
   PACIFIC/NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
   STATES.  MODELS SUGGEST SOME PHASING OF A NORTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE
   WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET WILL OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY IN THE LEE OF
   THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AN INTENSIFYING
   UPPER JET CORE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE VICINITY
   OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COLD
   AIR IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
   OF THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.  WHILE COLD AIR LIKELY WILL REMAIN
   DAMMED IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION
   OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE
   EASTERN CAROLINAS/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THURSDAY.  MODELS SUGGEST
   INTERSECTION OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING TO
   THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE LOW
   DEVELOPMENT.  SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES IN ADVANCE OF PHASING UPSTREAM IMPULSES MAY SUPPORT
   DEEPENING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES...BUT
   STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOT PROGGED TO OCCUR UNTIL
   THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS UPPER FORCING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
   MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   WITH ONLY SLOW MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER ONGOING ACROSS THE
   NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND YET TO COMMENCE OFF THE SOUTH
   ATLANTIC COAST...MOISTURE RETURN AND EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT
   THURSDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST INTO THE
   SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  INFLUENCE OF LEAD UPPER IMPULSE
   ON THIS PROCESS IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...BUT IT MAY TEND TO MITIGATE
   SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES AS IT SHIFTS
   OFFSHORE AHEAD OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS.
   
   HOWEVER...EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR IN WARM
   SECTOR OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...FROM PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE COINCIDENT
   WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...WHICH
   SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORABLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY
   DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE STRONGER
   UPPER FORCING DEVELOPS TOWARD MORE STABLE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
   AREAS.
   
   ..KERR.. 12/14/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z