Dec 23, 2005 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Dec 23 17:27:38 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 231725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MLB 30 S AGR 45 WSW FMY ...CONT... 30 S GLS 40 W POE 40 ENE SHV 50 NE PBF 25 NE MEM 45 N HSV 50 E CHA 35 ESE AND 20 NE OGB 45 ESE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE WITH CLOSING THE SYSTEM OFF LATE TONIGHT OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE TONIGHT IN THE SRN PLAINS AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE LINES OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MORNING. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO LA...MS AND AL DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN NRN GULF ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 55 TO 65 F RANGE AND THIS AIR SHOULD ADVECT AS FAR NWD AS CNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM SATURDAY...REINTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINES OR THE INITIATION OF NEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE. THE GREATEST LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN SRN MS AND SRN AL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHERE SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DUE TO THE BAND OF VERY STRONG ASCENT...MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD REFORM OR CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING. AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z |