Dec 23, 2005 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 23 17:27:38 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051223 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20051223 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 231725
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2005
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MLB 30 S AGR
   45 WSW FMY ...CONT... 30 S GLS 40 W POE 40 ENE SHV 50 NE PBF 25 NE
   MEM 45 N HSV 50 E CHA 35 ESE AND 20 NE OGB 45 ESE CHS.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
   TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE WITH CLOSING THE SYSTEM
   OFF LATE TONIGHT OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN RESPONSE TO THE
   APPROACHING SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE TONIGHT IN THE SRN
   PLAINS AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY
   MORNING. MULTIPLE LINES OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT IN THE MORNING. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO LA...MS AND AL DURING THE DAY. SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN NRN GULF ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 55 TO 65 F RANGE AND THIS
   AIR SHOULD ADVECT AS FAR NWD AS CNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL BY EARLY
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM SATURDAY...REINTENSIFICATION
   OF THE CONVECTIVE LINES OR THE INITIATION OF NEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE
   COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY.
   
   ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW ADEQUATE
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...INSTABILITY SHOULD
   BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE. THE GREATEST
   LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN SRN MS AND
   SRN AL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHERE SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DUE TO THE
   BAND OF VERY STRONG ASCENT...MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD REFORM OR
   CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE
   EVENING. AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...ANY MARGINAL SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 12/23/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z