SPC AC 050833
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ETA/GFS DIFFER ON FRIDAY WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF A
   PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES FROM THE SWRN STATES/NRN
   MEXICO TO THE MS VALLEY REGION.  THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
   FARTHER SSW OVER NRN MEXICO WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ETA AT 12Z
   FRIDAY.  THE GFS TRACKS THIS TROUGH EWD TO ERN TX BY LATE FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ETA DE-AMPLIFIES THIS TROUGH AS IT TRACKS NEWD
   INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE
   DETERMINISTIC MODELS APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF EACH MODELS FORECAST
   AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHING SRN CA AT THE END OF
   DAY 2 AND THE RESULTANT DEGREE OF BACKED DOWNSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE
   SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.
   
   ...UPPER TX COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY...
   ETA/GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
   OF THE TX/LA COAST MAY MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY ACROSS SERN TX AND INTO
   CENTRAL LA...WITH LOWER-MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS
   BOUNDARY.  PROGGED WAA WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN TX INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
   SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.  ALTHOUGH DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK
   INSTABILITY AT BEST ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST TO FAR SRN LA SHOULD
   MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.  GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY
   AND THAT BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDICATED HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THIS
   REGION...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW ATTM TO
   FORECAST ANY PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z