SPC AC 060826
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CST SUN FEB 06 2005
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   UNCERTAINTIES EXIST THIS PERIOD...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH
   REGARD TO FORECAST EVOLUTION OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN MULTIPLE
   BELTS OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.  MODELS DIFFER
   SUBSTANTIALLY WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG PRIMARY SURFACE
   FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH...BY 12Z TUESDAY...IS PROGGED TO EXTEND ACROSS
   NEW ENGLAND/THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
   
   LATEST...06/00Z...GFS IS STRONGER THAN NAM WITH EASTERN SURFACE
   WAVE...INITIATING IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH NOW LIFTING
   OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE THIS WAVE WILL
   MIGRATE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE
   CONTINUING INTO NORTHEAST.  AS A RESULT...GFS IS STRONGER WITH
   COOLING IN ITS WAKE...AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
   WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY...AS SIGNIFICANT
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
    NAM IS A BIT SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
   PLAINS...AND CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
   THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   WITH SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIKELY
   TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY...IMPLICATIONS OF MODEL
   DIFFERENCES ON SEVERE THREAT IS CONSIDERABLE.  BULK OF MODEL DATA
   OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS SEEMS TO FAVOR WEAKER WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...EVEN WITH WEAKER SOLUTION...AT
   LEAST A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST.
   
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DARK
   TUESDAY EVENING...WHEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE
   OCCURS WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
    THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION REGIME...FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO ARKANSAS...WITH
   ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES
   SOUTHEAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
   
   PRIMARILY ON STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER FLOW...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.  WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE APPROACHING
   OR EXCEEDING 500 J/KG...STRONGER CELLS MAY CONTAIN SOME HAIL.  THIS
   SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT IN ACTIVITY ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT
   ZONE...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR.
   
   IF NAM COMES CLOSER TO VERIFYING...GREATER INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL
   BE REALIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER FORCING...RESULTING IN A
   MORE CERTAIN SEVERE THREAT.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED IN
   LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/06/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z