Mar- 9-2005 1100 UTC Day 3 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 9 07:33:33 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050309 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20050309 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 090732
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 AM CST WED MAR 09 2005
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
   LONGWAVE TROUGH E OF THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND BECOME
   NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO INTENSE...UPSTREAM JET
   STREAK PROPAGATING THROUGH TROUGH BASE AND INTO WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE
   SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY
   NEWD TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD
   FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS INTO ERN GA...
   STRONG...AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SERN
   U.S. WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING THROUGH THE
   DAY FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ATTM...IT
   APPEARS PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALONG COLD
   FRONT IS LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY.
   
   INSPECTION OF GRID FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW 700 MB LI FIELDS
   SUGGEST THAT STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   A SHALLOW LAYER OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   EVENING. SHOULD LOW-TOPPED STORMS INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED
   WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND/OR HAIL WILL EXIST GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND STRONG TROPOSPHERIC
   WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/09/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z