SPC AC 090732
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CST WED MAR 09 2005
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGH E OF THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO INTENSE...UPSTREAM JET
STREAK PROPAGATING THROUGH TROUGH BASE AND INTO WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY
NEWD TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
...CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS INTO ERN GA...
STRONG...AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SERN
U.S. WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ATTM...IT
APPEARS PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALONG COLD
FRONT IS LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY.
INSPECTION OF GRID FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW 700 MB LI FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD LOW-TOPPED STORMS INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND/OR HAIL WILL EXIST GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND STRONG TROPOSPHERIC
WINDS.
..MEAD.. 03/09/2005
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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