SPC AC 140734
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT...SEWD ACROSS THE
   PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
   UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER
   DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE TURNING
   SEWD ON BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH.  STRONG UPPER TROUGH
   AND SWLY FLOW ACROSS MT WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
   ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG HEATING WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
   ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION OF THE U.S.  THIS INCREASE
   IN LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH NWD RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   WILL CREATE A VERY BUOYANT AIRMASS FROM NWRN TX...NWD INTO THE WRN
   DAKOTAS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3000-5000 J/KG.  IT
   APPEARS LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
   MOUNTAINOUS/HIGH TERRAIN REGION OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH SEWD
   MOVEMENT EXPECTED INTO THE PLAINS FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT NOCTURNAL
   MCS EVOLUTION. IN ADDITION...LATE DAY2 MCS OVER OK MAY BECOME AN
   INITIATOR FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
   BY MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
   
   FARTHER NORTH...HEIGHT FALLS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL ENHANCE
   OTHERWISE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN MT.  THIS ACTIVITY
   MAY ORGANIZE AS IT SPREADS NEWD WITHIN DEEP SWLY FLOW REGIME
   ALOFT...AND FAVORABLE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. 
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY FORM DEEP INTO WRN MT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE HAD SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/14/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z