SPC AC 260652
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WWD
   INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS
   WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING
   THE DAY 3 PERIOD. LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN
   EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE...THOUGH GFS SHOWS DEEPEST/MOST
   AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...APPEARS PRIMARY SURFACE
   CYCLONE WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP SEWD FROM SERN MT INTO WRN
   SD...BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE RED RIVER
   VALLEY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE
   DAKOTAS...MIDDLE MO VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE
   DAKOTAS. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MOIST
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS SEWD
   INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ALSO
   INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA SHIFT EWD
   ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   INITIALLY...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER WITH TIME...UPSCALE
   GROWTH INTO A MCS IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE MO
   VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SWWD ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
   WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED AND HOT BOUNDARY-LAYER. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND HIGH
   WINDS GIVEN ANTICIPATED MODERATE INSTABILITY E OF INITIATING
   BOUNDARY.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES...
   COMPLEX OF TSTMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS TUESDAY MORNING OVER ERN MN/WRN
   WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD IMPULSE OVER THE SAME AREA. TSTMS MAY
   PERSIST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EWD THROUGH THE UP AND LOWER MI
   ALONG TRAILING WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEPARTING
   DISTURBANCE. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE
   CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...HOWEVER
   STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/26/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z