SPC AC 150707
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EMERGE ONTO THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS ON SAT WILL TRANSLATE EWD TO THE UPPER MS VLY AND CNTRL
   PLAINS BY SUN EVE.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD
   FROM THE DAKS INTO WI AND IA BY LATE SUN.  SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT
   WILL MOVE SLOWER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND ERN CO.
   
   VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG HEATING WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF STRONG BUOYANCY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT SUN AFTN.  STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE ERN DAKS AND MN.  THIS
   SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE PARCELS TO BREAK THE CAP AND STORMS
   SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTN...VCNTY THE DAKS/MN
   BORDERS.  MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST BEHIND
   THE COLD FRONT...BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR
   FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN LINEAR LARGE SCALE FORCING...
   HOWEVER...EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD EVENTUALLY OCCUR. 
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION FROM LARGE HAIL TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO WI OVERNIGHT SUN.
   
   FARTHER SW...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.  PRIND
   THAT HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER SERN WY/ERN CO EWD TO
   ALONG THE FRONT IN CNTRL/SRN NEB AS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
   SKIRTS THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN.  STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY ROOT INTO
   THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE EVENING WITH SUPERCELLS
   POSSIBLE GIVEN 30-40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR.  ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL
   INTO A MCS AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN NEB/WRN IA AND PERHAPS
   NRN KS LATER AT NIGHT AS A 40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. 
   LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/15/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z