SPC AC 200738
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN
   STATES...
   
   ...NERN STATES...
   ACTIVE BELT OF WLYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY
   THROUGH FRI.  EACH WAVE WILL CREST THE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND GRADUALLY CARVE A TROUGH ACROSS THE NERN
   PART OF THE COUNTRY.  GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN TAKING A
   SPEED MAX...NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA...TO THE ST.
   LAWRENCE VLY BY FRI.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SCOURED
   SOMEWHAT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AT LEAST 60S DEW POINTS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REBOUND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  AT
   THE SAME TIME...PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
   MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST INSTABILITY. 
   TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING AS PVA/LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   SPREAD EWD ATOP THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. FAST FLOW ALOFT AND HOT
   CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW...WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.  LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
   STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR.
   
   ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...
   TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS/NAM W.R.T. EJECTING TROUGH THAT
   WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST LATE WEEK.  GFS RESEMBLES THE ECMWF
   WITH A LATER PHASING OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS AND
   WAS PREFERRED. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD
   EWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES FRI AFTN.  POTENTIAL
   INGESTION OF MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND FAST FLOW ALOFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG TSTMS.  GIVEN
   UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING/INSTABILITY...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY SUB-
   CATEGORICAL/LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE ATTM.
   
   ...DESERT SW...
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE OVER AZ WITH CONTRIBUTIONS
   FROM REMNANT EMILY AND A POSSIBLE GULF SURGE.  DEPENDING ON CLOUD
   DEBRIS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FURTHER UPSWING IN CONVECTION...
   THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT THAN DAMAGING WIND. 
   ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG WRN FRINGES OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE
   CONTENT WHERE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOULD EXIST.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/20/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z