SPC AC 030649
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ENEWD FROM AB/SK
   INTO MB/NRN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY 3 PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED ZONE OF
   HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WLY WINDS ALONG SRN
   PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONCURRENTLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
   DAKOTAS INTO WRN GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW
   INITIALLY OVER WRN/CNTRL ND WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD INTO NWRN
   ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
   AND UPPER MS VALLEY.
   
   ...ERN DAKOTAS AND MN...
   INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL CANADA SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
   ERODE STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS REGION.  AS THIS OCCURS...TSTMS
   WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD BY MONDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NRN MN INTO ERN SD WITHIN MODERATE TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST TO THE W IN POST-FRONTAL
   ENVIRONMENT...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA INDICATE
   SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
   
   ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ALONG
   LEE TROUGH AND/OR COLD FRONT WITHIN MODERATE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
   GIVEN STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/03/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z