SPC AC 130734
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LOWER AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE LOWER 48 THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH A SRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING
   FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND A NRN STREAM
   TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS MN AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A DISSIPATING
   COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO THE TN VALLEY.
   IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND STRONG DYNAMICS
   ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
   ZONE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NNEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS TO MS VALLEY...
   MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER OK/AR. IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
   STORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ARKLATEX EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY UPPER TROUGH/DIFFLUENT MID
   LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...
   UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO BOUNDARY LOCATION...CAP...AND OVERALL
   STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGHER
   PROBABILITY OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS TO MN/NWRN WI...
   NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SHOULD
   MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS DURING THURSDAY. HEATING AND
   DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN
   RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
   MAY KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   THERE CONTINUE TO BE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT WITH RESPECT
   TO THE TRACK OF OPHELIA AND THE INTERACTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE
   FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO BE STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
   LENDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE STORMS
   ACROSS THE REGION. AT PRESENT IT APPEARS THE THERE MAY BE A STRONG
   INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE RESULTING IN A
   POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC NEWD TO
   NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...AND AT LEAST A
   CHANCE FOR MORE INTENSE WIND FIELDS/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   TROPICAL CYCLONE...A TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THIS AREA.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/13/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z