SPC AC 150528
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2005
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SOUTHWEST U.S. CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS
   EWD ACROSS SRN CA/BAJA AREA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LATEST NAM
   FORECAST IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...DEVELOPING AN OPEN
   WAVE ACROSS SRN AZ BY TUESDAY MORNING. GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM CLOSED
   AND FARTHER WEST WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LAST ECMWF RUN. POCKETS
   OF HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITHIN THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
   COULD PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS FROM SRN CA ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
   VALLEY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL GIVEN COLD
   CORE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
   
   FAST MOVING NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
   GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   TO THE NRN ROCKIES. MODEL DIFFERENCES DO EXIST WITH THESE FEATURES
   IN BOTH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED WITH THE LATEST GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH
   TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
   EARLY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE...GENERALLY
   COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
   PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NRN STATES.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 10/15/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z