Jan 1, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 1 06:00:11 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060101 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060101 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060101 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060101 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 010556
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
   GZH 30 SSE MEI 40 SW CBM 15 SSW MKL 25 ENE PAH 25 NNE EVV 25 NNW SDF
   25 W LEX 35 NNE CSV 35 NNE ATL 15 WNW MCN 20 NNW ABY 20 WSW DHN 30
   WSW GZH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 25 N SLE 10
   W MHS 35 E SJC 35 NE SBA 50 S LGB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ERI 20 NW LBE
   45 NNW SSU 25 S BLF 40 N CAE 55 ESE SAV ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 35 SSE
   OCF 45 WSW PIE ...CONT... 50 S BVE 40 W JAN 25 SSW POF 15 SSE SPI 45
   NE MKE 20 SSW HTL 40 NE MTC.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF
   COAST...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
   
   ...GULF COAST/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US WILL
   AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS
   AFTERNOON. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
   INSTABILITY DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION/SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN LA...SRN
   MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLUSTER OF
   STORMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO SCNTRL AL AND SWRN GA DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY HAVE ACCESS TO MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AS
   MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
   THROUGH. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE VERTICAL
   SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING A FEW SUPERCELLS OR MULTICELL
   SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
   SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR PEAK
   HEATING.
   
   FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
   A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
   HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ALLOWING
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS
   APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT FROM NE MS ACROSS WRN TN IN
   NRN AL. INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
   STRONG SHEAR AS A MID-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND
   MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE CELLS WILL
   HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS QUICKLY MOVE NEWD
   ACROSS CNTRL TN AND NRN AL. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
   LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL
   STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WRN KY AND SRN
   IND AS THE 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THAT REGION AROUND
   MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER...THE STRONG ASCENT
   WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 70 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ENEWD
   INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
   
   ...PACIFIC COAST...
   A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE
   WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD INTO
   THE COASTAL AREAS OF CA...ORE AND WA. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ONSHORE
   FLOW WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT
   FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 01/01/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z