Jan 1, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 1 12:40:19 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060101 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060101 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060101 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060101 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 011237
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
   
   VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
   HUM 25 E BTR 35 W MEI 15 SSW MKL 25 ENE PAH 25 NNE EVV 25 NNW SDF 25
   W LEX 35 NNE CSV 35 NNE ATL 15 WNW MCN 55 WSW VDI 15 NNE VLD 35 E
   AAF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 25 ENE PDX
   25 E MHS MER BFL 50 S LGB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SGJ 35 SSE OCF
   45 WSW PIE ...CONT... 50 SSE 7R4 40 N HEZ 30 WNW CGI 10 NE UIN 25
   WNW JVL 15 ENE DTW ...CONT... 30 NW ERI 20 NW LBE 45 NNW SSU 25 S
   BLF CLT 20 SSW CRE.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST AND INTO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS...
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   SRN STREAM IMPULSE...WELL DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
   OVER THE TX COAST...WILL CONTINUE EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION
   TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  SURFACE DEW POINTS
   REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S OFFSHORE ATTM...AND MODELS LIFT UPPER
   60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO SERN LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL
   PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.  NOT CERTAIN HOW FAR NWD COASTAL
   BOUNDARY/TRUE MARINE LAYER WILL DEVELOP TODAY...THOUGH 09Z RUC
   DEPICTS THIS BOUNDARY OVER FAR SRN GA WNWWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL MS AT
   21Z.  THEREFORE...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND 1000-1500 J/KG
   MLCAPE SHOULD BECOME COLLOCATED AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM INTO AT
   LEAST SERN LA...FAR SRN MS/AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 18Z...AND
   SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
   ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND SPREAD EWD
   THROUGH THE EVENING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO
   STRUCTURES UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
   STREAM SYSTEM. THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
   THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ALSO INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS
   AFTERNOON HEATING ALLOWS STORMS TO ROOT INTO VERY MOIST...MARINE AIR
   MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF COASTAL FRONT.
   
   LATE IN THE PERIOD...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/SUPERCELL THREAT MAY
   INCREASE AGAIN OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
   REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND ANY NIGHTTIME STORMS WILL POSE AT LEAST A
   THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND TORNADOES.
   
   ...OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
   DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
   SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.  GULF MOISTURE
   RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LEADING EDGE OF
   60F ISODROSOTHERM OVER ERN TX/SRN AR/CENTRAL MS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD
   INTO MUCH OF THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
   SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS STRONG/DEEP
   ASCENT EJECTS ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS LATER THIS
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER A LARGE AREA
   WITHIN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
   OF THE PERIOD. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
   AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
   MUCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION.  IN ADDITION...
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 45-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS
   AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM STRONGER
   STORMS.  AS SURFACE THETA-E AND DEEP ASCENT INCREASES THROUGH THE
   NIGHT...STORMS MAY ROOT NEARER THE SURFACE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
   ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREATS.
   
   ..EVANS.. 01/01/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z