SPC AC 011634
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
   
   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S
   HUM 30 NNW MSY 30 E JAN 40 WSW UOX 60 NE PBF 15 N BVX 40 ESE TBN 30
   WNW STL DEC 20 W IND 55 W LUK 35 SE SDF 35 NNE CSV 30 N ATL 15 WNW
   MCN 55 WSW VDI 15 NNE VLD 45 SE AAF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SGJ 30 NW AGR
   40 WSW APF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S 7R4 45 N HEZ 30
   ESE RUE 15 NE HRO 20 NE SZL 40 ENE OTM 20 NNE DBQ 15 ENE MSN 40 W
   MKG 30 SW LAN 40 W CLE 20 NE PKB 25 SE CRW 45 ENE TRI 30 SW CLT 30
   SSE CRE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 20 NW PDX 40
   SW MFR 45 E EKA 25 NE UKI 40 WSW MER 40 WSW BFL 30 S OXR.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE GULF
   COAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY....
   
   ...N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST TODAY...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENEWD
   OVER SRN LA.  THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVER SE LA/MS/AL TODAY. 
   MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING NWD/INLAND OVER LA...SRN
   MS/AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F
   ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG THE
   IMMEDIATE COAST.  EXPECT DESTABILIZATION INLAND TODAY WITH LIMITED
   DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION. 
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT AND
   IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE BY ROUGHLY MIDDAY FROM SE LA TO SRN
   AL...AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
   SPREAD EWD.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL
   SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. 
   
   ...PORTIONS OF MID MS/LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS TONIGHT...
   A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
   PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD TO THE MS VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE AN
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SW KS TO NE MO.  A RELATIVELY WARM
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME AND A SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS UNLIKELY ALONG THE
   DEVELOPING DRYLINE ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR THROUGH THIS EVENING. 
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE TONIGHT NEAR AND
   E OF THE MS RIVER AND WITHIN THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
   THAT WILL SPREAD NWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 50
   KT LLJ.  STRONG L0W-MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF 1000-1500
   J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE A SLIGHTLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
   RICH MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. 
   
   ...PAC COAST TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...
   THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
   NEWD/INLAND OVER THE NW CA/ORE/WA COASTS TODAY.  SUBSTANTIAL
   LIGHTNING AND ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
   JUST OFF THE NW CA/SW ORE COASTS...IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH
   EXTREMELY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION
   WILL WEAKEN WHILE ENCOUNTERING THE RELATIVELY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
   MASS THAT IS BEING MAINTAINED ALONG THE COAST BY SELY/OFFSHORE FLOW.
   ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL CA COAST WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH SOME
   INCREASE IN THE TSTM THREAT EARLY MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH
   NEAR 135 W APPROACHES THE COAST.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 01/01/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z