Jan 2, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Mon Jan 2 18:16:11 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats. | |
Public Severe Weather Outlook | |
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The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event. |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
SPC AC 021650 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PFN 20 ENE CEW TOI 10 W AUO 35 WNW MCN 25 WNW AGS 25 NE CAE FLO 40 SW CRE 20 N CTY 55 SSE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE ...CONT... 30 WSW BVE 50 ESE MEI 30 NNW TCL 35 ESE MEM 20 E PAH 10 S MTO 30 NE PIA 30 WSW FWA 30 N CMH 10 N PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 20 SW AVL 25 W GSP 15 SE SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 60 S HUM 30 SE MEI 20 SSE CBM 10 NW UOX 25 WSW PAH 40 NE VIH 10 ENE UIN 20 ENE MLI 35 S LSE 10 WSW MTW 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM 50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 35 SE NFL 40 SW ELY 40 NW MLF 40 ESE MLF 25 NW PGA 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE...SERN AL...GA...SRN/ERN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM NRN FL NWWD TO SRN INDIANA/SRN OH/ERN IL...AND MUCH OF CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES PRIMARY TROUGHS INITIALLY OFFSHORE CA AND OVER MS VALLEY. PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER FEATURE -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA OVER NRN MO -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY...REACHING VICINITY TN/VA BORDER BY 3/12Z. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- INITIALLY OVER WRN IL -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN OH AND WEAKEN AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY OVER TIDEWATER REGION OF VA/NC. MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. TROUGH OFFSHORE CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CA. OTHERWISE SEE GEOGRAPHIC SECTIONS BELOW FOR PERTINENT SFC FEATURES. ...SERN CONUS... REF WW 5 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION REGARDING BAND OF STRONG-SVR TSTMS CURRENTLY FROM SWRN GA ACROSS FL PANHANDLE. SFC...925 AND 850 MB ANALYSES SHOW MARKED ZONE OF RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE SFC AIR OVER SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS NEWD...WRN BOUNDARY OF WHICH IS RETREATING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NERN AL/NWRN GA. SERN EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD DRIFT NWD OVER ERN GA AND SRN SC AHEAD OF MAIN ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND. WAA AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL AID NEWD EROSION OF COLD AIR WEDGE OVER GA AND EVENTUALLY SC...POSSIBLY INTO SRN/WRN NC THIS EVENING. TORNADO AND WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF ASSOCIATED SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION...HENCE DECREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES NEWD ACROSS REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOW POTENTIAL BOTH IN EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND AND IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS FARTHER W...ALTHOUGH VEERING WIND PROFILE RESULT IN STRAIGHTER HODOGRAPHS AND SMALLER PROJECTED SRH BETWEEN EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND AND SFC COLD FRONT. DEEP-LAYER SHEARS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS WITH TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APCHS...AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT STRENGTHEN. SHEAR/VORTICITY ALSO WILL BE ENHANCED INVOF RETREATING WEDGE/FRONT...FURTHER AIDING TORNADO POTENTIAL ON MESOSCALE. GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES...ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO. ...OH VALLEY REGION... SFC WARM FRONT IS EVIDENT FROM NERN AL NNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL KY TO SWRN AL...INTERSECTING SQUALL LINE INVOF SRN PORTION IL/INDIANA BORDER. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO RETREAT ENEWD ACROSS TN/KY AND SRN INDIANA THROUGH AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER THIS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF AFTERNOON. REF SPC WWS 4 AND 6...AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS -- FOR NEAR-TERM INFO. NEAR-FRONTAL TSTM BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERTAKE EWD MOVING WARM FRONT OVER OH VALLEY THROUGH 00Z...RESULTING IN SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASING WITH TIME AND FROM N-S IN INFLOW LAYER. MEANWHILE BAND WILL BACKBUILD SWD INTO TN VALLEY REGION...RESULTING IN SEWD NET SHIFT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM ONGOING WW AREAS TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS KY/TN. BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SLGT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ...CENTRAL/SRN CA... PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH APCHS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APCH OF TROUGH ALOFT...WHILE SFC FLOW BACKS ACROSS CENTRAL VALLEY BECAUSE OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING. MAIN CAVEAT WILL BE TIMING/EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION BEHIND ONGOING PRECIP PLUME...DURING ROUGHLY 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR 20Z OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z