SPC AC 060546
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CST THU JAN 05 2006
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CLM 10 SSW OLM
   15 SSE EUG 35 E 4BK 60 SW UKI.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-1 WITH
   MEAN TROUGH IN ERN CONUS AND RIDGE FROM SRN CA THROUGH CANADIAN
   ROCKIES.  COLD FRONT NOW OVER NRN FL IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SEWD
   THROUGH REMAINDER PENINSULA BEFORE 6/18Z.  AIRMASS OVER GREAT
   MAJORITY OF CONUS WILL BE TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR TSTMS...WITH
   POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR-COASTAL PACIFIC NW. NRN PORTION OF
   POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF CA AND ORE -- IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD AND
   DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ASHORE AROUND 7/00Z...WITH SRN PORTION MOVING
   INLAND NRN CA AFTER DARK.
   
   ...WRN PORTIONS WA/ORE...
   MRGL PROBABILITIES FOR CATEGORICAL THUNDER OUTLOOK...WITH TSTM
   EVENTS BEING ISOLATED AND EPISODIC THROUGH MIDDLE-LATE PERIOD.
   UNLIKE SPECTRAL/NGM LI...ETA LI GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE
   CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA...HOWEVER ANIMATIONS OF BOTH
   ETA AND ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS RESULT IS AN ARTIFACT OF THE
   MODELED BUOYANT LAYERS AND HOW THEY EVOLVE.  MOST UNSTABLE LIFTED
   PARCELS BETWEEN ABOUT 18-22Z ARE ROOTED AROUND 650 MB AND GENERATE
   MRGL MUCAPES UNDER 100 J/KG WITH LI AROUND -1...BUT THIS IS NOT
   EVIDENT IN STANDARD PLANAR CAPE/LI GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF ITS MORE
   STABLE LOW-LEVEL PARCEL SELECTION.  THEN AS LOWER-MIDLEVEL ASCENT
   PASSES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AROUND 7/00Z. CONVECTIVE PARCEL BASES DROP
   QUICKLY TO AROUND 900 MB...WITH TOPS BELOW 500 MB SAMPLING LEVEL FOR
   LI FIELDS.  THIS REGIME SHOULD SHIFT SWD THROUGH EVENING AND
   OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AND NEARLY
   SATURATED LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILES GENERATING WEAK CAPE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z