Jan 9, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Mon Jan 9 05:44:09 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 090541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E BRO 20 SE NIR 25 ENE AUS 25 SSE DUA 20 SW RKR 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 40 ENE JAN 20 NNE HEZ 40 ESE POE 60 S LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AS THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE MIDWEST RAPIDLY TRANSLATES INTO THE NERN STATES EARLY TODAY...A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL GET LEFT BEHIND...CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY TURN E TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY LATE MON NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM NRN STREAM IMPULSE DROPS TOWARD THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEST UPPER DISTURBANCE...WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS THE TN VLY AND SRN PLAINS MONDAY. ERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MONDAY AFTN. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EWD TOWARD NRN LA BY 12Z TUE...WRN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD OFF THE TX COAST. ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY MONDAY. BY AFTN...SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREE F INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE UPPER TX/LA COASTS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE HEATING IS THE STRONGEST. BUT... MODEST CAP NOTED IN 00Z/10 SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST...PRECLUDING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS THE LWR TN VLY...AND MON NIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE MID-LEVEL PROFILES COOL AND UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SPREAD SEWD. TSTMS WILL THEN DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE DEEP S AND SEWD ACROSS ERN TX AND WRN/NRN LA BY EARLY TUE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MUCAPES WILL REMAIN WEAK AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. ..RACY.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |