SPC AC 162003
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006
   
   VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ESE
   CRP 25 ENE PSX 15 NNE HOU 45 NNW BPT 20 SW POE 35 S ESF 15 NNW BTR
   30 ESE BTR 35 SE MSY 75 SSW BVE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW MFE 25 NE COT
   20 NW TPL 20 WSW PRX 30 SE FSM 10 S FLP 35 ESE UNO 35 SSW CGI 45 SSE
   PAH 60 SSW CKV 20 ENE MSL 40 SW TCL 25 NNE MOB 80 ESE BVE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S DMN 25 E TCS 50
   NNW ROW 55 NE HOB 45 S MAF 45 SSE 6R6.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH SRN LA...
   
   ...SERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN LA...
   
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE
   WRN GULF WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SUGGESTING
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFICATION. THE LOW
   LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY FROM SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD ADVECTION OF THE
   PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
   FALLING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH MAY
   RESULT IN SOME DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE COAST OF EXTREME SERN TX
   AND LA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE
   RETURN...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS ONGOING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
   AND RAIN WILL LIMIT CAPE TO BELOW 500 J/KG. THE MEAGER INSTABILITY
   IMPLIES IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN UPRIGHT CONVECTION GIVEN THE
   STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR. CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
   WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A SURFACE LOW
   DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THIS
   MAY HELP CONVECTION TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS A LINE FROM
   EXTREME SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
   WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
   FROM SERN TX THROUGH LA FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHERE PROXIMITY
   TO BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
   EXIST. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/16/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z