SPC AC 221957
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006
   
   VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S
   LCH 15 E LCH 40 S ESF 20 WSW HEZ 20 NNE MCB 20 NE ASD 55 SE BVE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S PSX 30 S SAT 35
   E JCT 40 NW SEP 30 W ADM 30 E RKR 25 ESE FLP 20 NNW BWG 35 NNE CRW
   25 ENE SSU 35 SW GSO 20 SW GSP 10 WSW AUO 45 SSW PNS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN/SERN LA INTO PARTS
   OF FAR SRN MS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE 
   EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN KY WSWWD TO NRN MS AND THEN SSWWD THROUGH
   CENTRAL MS TO SWRN LA AND THE UPPER TX COASTAL AREA TO A SURFACE LOW
   LOCATED EAST OF PSX.  IN ADDITION...A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDED
   FROM THE NWRN GULF /S OF LA/ NWD TO SOUTH CENTRAL LA/SWRN MS WHERE
   IT INTERSECTED THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TROUGH HAD STARTED
   TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVED ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE FIRST
   PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED TROUGHS WITHIN SWLY
   FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEWD FROM ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY.
   
   ...SRN LA/PARTS OF SRN MS...
   SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/ WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN FURTHER
   DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG
   EXPECTED ACROSS SERN LA TO FAR SRN MS. MODIFIED RUC POINT FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS FOR THESE CONDITIONS SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
   THE CONFLUENT ZONE AND/OR AHEAD OF THE PSX SURFACE LOW/ATTENDANT
   BAROCLINIC ZONE WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.  THUS...
   HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES/ADDED A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
   SRN/SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS.
   
   MODIFIED AREA VAD DATA WITH CURRENT SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA INDICATED 0-3 KM SRH VALUES TO AROUND 300 M2/S2 TO
   SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO A THREAT FOR WINDS
   AND/OR HAIL.
   
   WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FARTHER N INTO NERN MS/NWRN AL AND ALSO
   WWD ACROSS ERN TX SUGGESTS THESE REGIONS WILL HAVE A SMALLER
   PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/22/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z