Jan 24, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Tue Jan 24 12:56:10 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 241253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN 20 SSW GBN 45 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 10 SSE EED 35 NNW IGM 65 W GCN 15 SSW GCN 30 S INW 55 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A REX BLOCK OVER THE PAC COAST...AND A DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN PAC. MEANWHILE...THE INTENSE MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE NERN OH/WRN PA AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR...BUT THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SMALL. FARTHER S...LINGERING MOISTURE/WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR THE SE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING...THUS AN OUTLOOK AREA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY. ...AZ AREA TONIGHT... AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER AZ BY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS...WHERE DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT FROM SE INTO CENTRAL AZ. ..THOMPSON.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |