Jan 24, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 24 12:56:10 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060124 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060124 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060124 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060124 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 241253
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2006
   
   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN 20 SSW GBN
   45 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 10 SSE EED 35 NNW IGM 65 W GCN 15 SSW GCN 30 S
   INW 55 ESE DUG.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A REX
   BLOCK OVER THE PAC COAST...AND A DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
   THE GREAT LAKES.  THE MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL MOVE
   LITTLE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS
   THE ERN PAC.  MEANWHILE...THE INTENSE MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE GREAT
   LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 
   VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
   FROM THE NERN OH/WRN PA AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER
   TONIGHT.  VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR...BUT THE THREAT
   FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
   SMALL. FARTHER S...LINGERING MOISTURE/WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR THE SE
   ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING...THUS AN
   OUTLOOK AREA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY.
   
   ...AZ AREA TONIGHT...
   AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
   OVER AZ BY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.  MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE
   WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS...WHERE DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT FROM SE INTO CENTRAL AZ.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 01/24/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z