Feb 1, 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Wed Feb 1 20:08:05 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML|PDF|DOC formats.
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SPC AC 012004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S PSX 40 SSE BAZ 35 W AUS 15 NE TPL 30 SW TYR 40 WNW IER HEZ 25 W PIB 35 N MOB 40 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25 WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 35 NE COT 20 SE JCT 20 NNE BWD 30 NNE FTW 25 ESE FSM 25 W BVX 10 NNE MEM 45 S CBM 25 ENE GZH 35 S AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX GULF COAST TO SRN LA/MS... ...SERN TX/SRN LA-MS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTS COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING STEADILY ESEWD ACROSS LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NEWD OVER LA THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STRONG DPVA/LIFT WAS ALREADY ACTING ON MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE CAPPING INVERSION AND SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM EAST OF SAT TO NORTH OF HOU. EXPECT ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OR TWO OF HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS NEAR/WITHIN MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE TXK/SHV AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...MORE VIGOROUS/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...AND LARGER HAIL...WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO EXPAND INLAND ACROSS THE TX COAST FROM VCT NEWD TO WEST OF HOU AS SURFACE LOW WEST OF VCT DEEPENS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONGER WARM SECTOR INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY WHEN CRP 18Z SOUNDING IS ADJUSTED FOR LATEST INFLOW AIR MASS /TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AS STORMS TAP GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST FROM VCT THROUGH HOU/GLS AREA. EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE EVENING AS DEEP LAYER LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND AIDS IN UPSCALE ORGANIZATION. HAIL AND WIND THREAT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE MCS AS IT SPREADS EWD ALONG THE LA GULF COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |