Feb 1, 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 1 20:08:05 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML|PDF|DOC formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060201 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060201 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060201 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060201 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 012004
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006
   
   VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S
   PSX 40 SSE BAZ 35 W AUS 15 NE TPL 30 SW TYR 40 WNW IER HEZ 25 W PIB
   35 N MOB 40 S PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25
   WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 35 NE COT 20
   SE JCT 20 NNE BWD 30 NNE FTW 25 ESE FSM 25 W BVX 10 NNE MEM 45 S CBM
   25 ENE GZH 35 S AAF.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX GULF COAST
   TO SRN LA/MS...
   
   ...SERN TX/SRN LA-MS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTS COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MOVING STEADILY ESEWD ACROSS LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE TX
   COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NEWD OVER LA THROUGH
   DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STRONG DPVA/LIFT WAS ALREADY ACTING ON MOISTURE
   AT THE TOP OF THE CAPPING INVERSION AND SUPPORTING ELEVATED
   CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM EAST OF SAT TO
   NORTH OF HOU. EXPECT ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR TO CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   AS STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OR TWO
   OF HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS NEAR/WITHIN MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPREAD
   NEWD TOWARD THE TXK/SHV AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...MORE
   VIGOROUS/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...AND LARGER HAIL...WILL LIKELY OCCUR
   CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO EXPAND
   INLAND ACROSS THE TX COAST FROM VCT NEWD TO WEST OF HOU AS SURFACE
   LOW WEST OF VCT DEEPENS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONGER WARM SECTOR INITIATION
   APPEARS LIKELY WHEN CRP 18Z SOUNDING IS ADJUSTED FOR LATEST INFLOW
   AIR MASS /TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   60S/. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS AS STORMS TAP GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
   THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TORNADO AND
   LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD
   ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST FROM VCT THROUGH HOU/GLS AREA.
   
   EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE EVENING AS DEEP LAYER
   LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND AIDS IN
   UPSCALE ORGANIZATION. HAIL AND WIND THREAT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE MCS
   AS IT SPREADS EWD ALONG THE LA GULF COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 02/01/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z