SPC AC 032002
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
   
   VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE
   BVE 10 NNE MSY 30 W BTR 35 SE POE 25 ENE POE 45 ENE MLU 40 SSW GWO
   40 NE MEI 15 NNE CSG 10 W MCN 30 SSE FLO 55 ESE ILM ...CONT... 45
   NNE PBI 50 SSW SRQ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM
   20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 7R4 45 SE LFK
   50 NE LFK 15 ESE SHV 35 WSW LLQ 25 SSW MEM 15 SW MKL 50 SW LOZ 40
   NNW SSU 35 S DCA 55 ESE WAL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY EWD INTO
   THE SERN STATES...
   
   ...LWR MS VLY EWD INTO THE DEEP S...
   MID-AFTN MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT ARCING FROM
   THE MID-MS VLY SWWD ACROSS CNTRL LA THEN WWD INTO SCNTRL TX.  A WEAK
   LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN MS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING SEWD
   ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO CNTRL FL.  THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
   EXTENDED EWD ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF MS...AL...GA AND THE ERN
   CAROLINAS.  
   
   PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THERE APPEARS
   TO BE A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE PARENT
   TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE MS DELTA.  THIS MAY BE AIDING ONGOING TSTMS
   IN THE LWR MS VLY.  SO FAR...LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN THREAT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS OWING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
   SPREADING EWD TOWARD THE REGION.
   
   THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM
   ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AS THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
   AXIS/JET STREAK OVER CNTRL TX TRANSLATES EWD.  THERE IS SOME
   QUESTION ON THE MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE LAST
   NIGHT/S ACTIVITY ACTED TO STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.  BUT...GIVEN
   MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND THE
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW/MIXING...AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE AND
   SUPPORT TSTMS. THUS...APPROACHING/DEVELOPING TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS
   VLY MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SRN MS/ERN LA
   EWD INTO AL AND WRN FL PNHDL.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL.  TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE
   LEWPS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. 
   HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN BACKED VCNTY TRACK OF THE SURFACE
   LOW.  
    
   ...SERN STATES...
   A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM PARTS
   OF FL NEWD INTO SRN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.  WARM
   CONVEYOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
   APPROACHES...WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCING BY THIS
   EVENING.  NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS SHOULD RESULT...BUT THE OVERALL
   SEVERE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. CNTRL FL MCS HAS MAINTAINED
   A SUBSTANTIAL COLD DOME ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS MAY GRADUALLY ERODE
   FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL SSWLY FLOW INCREASES
   TO 40-45 KTS.  THOUGH TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY ELEVATED ACROSS
   EXTREME NRN FL...SRN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS...THE PROBABILITY FOR
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS CNTRL FL WHERE BOUNDARY
   LAYER SHOULD MODIFY.  INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 50-60
   KTS OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL.  HIGHER THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES WILL
   BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF CNTRL FL WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
   BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/03/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z