Feb 4, 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sat Feb 4 20:02:09 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML|PDF|DOC formats.
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SPC AC 041959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CHS 25 SE FLO 20 SSW SOP 20 NNE GSO 25 NE ROA 35 ENE CHO 15 E NHK 45 SSE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 3TH 25 SSE SMN 15 SW IDA 30 NNW OGD 20 SE ENV 25 NNE U31 30 SSW WMC 45 SW REO BNO 35 N RDM 25 NNW DLS EAT 30 SSW 63S 55 WNW 3TH 40 S 3TH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE SAV 10 W FLO 35 SSW GSO 15 N BLF 45 ENE CRW 25 WNW PIT ERI 15 NW ROC 40 E ART MPV 40 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 40 SSE PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF VA/NC... ...ERN NC/VA... 100+ KT SLY H5 WIND MAX ALONG BASE OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO CNTRL NC/VA AT MID-AFTN AND WAS SUPPORTING SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN NC. THIS LOW SHOULD DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE EVOLVED. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM HAS BEEN TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE NWD WITH 58-63F SURFACE DEW POINTS COMMON ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM CNTRL VA TO SRN DE. HEATING HAS BEEN MINIMAL TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OWING TO CLOUDS...BUT STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT HAVE BEEN ADVANCING EWD...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT NEWD INTO ERN VA. A THIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG A FRONT FROM CNTRL WV SWD INTO CNTRL NC. COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAS BEEN LAGGING BEHIND THIS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT...BUT SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THE LINE LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. THUS... CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY INTO A STRONGER LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL/ERN VA AND ERN NC LATE THIS AFTN. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WAS QUITE STRONG...AND UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE AS BUOYANCY REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK. BUT...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER SUSTAINED STORMS LATE AFTN-EVE...CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE THREATS. THE HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NCNTRL/NERN NC INTO SCNTRL/SERN VA. THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY SPREAD FARTHER NWD INTO SERN PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT AS FAR N AS CNTRL NJ/EXTREME SERN PA. ...SRN FL... PRE-FRONTAL LINEAR MCS HAS LARGELY CLEARED SRN FL...LESSENING SEVERE RISKS. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SWD THROUGH CNTRL FL AT MID-AFTN...BUT STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS AND DECREASED MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PARENT FRONT WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..RACY.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |