Feb 4, 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 4 20:02:09 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML|PDF|DOC formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060204 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060204 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060204 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060204 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 041959
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
   VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
   CHS 25 SE FLO 20 SSW SOP 20 NNE GSO 25 NE ROA 35 ENE CHO 15 E NHK 45
   SSE WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 3TH 25 SSE SMN
   15 SW IDA 30 NNW OGD 20 SE ENV 25 NNE U31 30 SSW WMC 45 SW REO BNO
   35 N RDM 25 NNW DLS EAT 30 SSW 63S 55 WNW 3TH 40 S 3TH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE SAV 10 W FLO
   35 SSW GSO 15 N BLF 45 ENE CRW 25 WNW PIT ERI 15 NW ROC 40 E ART MPV
   40 ESE PSM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 40 SSE PBI.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF
   VA/NC...
   
   ...ERN NC/VA...
   100+ KT SLY H5 WIND MAX ALONG BASE OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WAS
   MOVING INTO CNTRL NC/VA AT MID-AFTN AND WAS SUPPORTING SECONDARY LOW
   DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN NC.  THIS LOW SHOULD DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE ERN
   SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE EVOLVED.
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM HAS BEEN TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC
   MOISTURE NWD WITH 58-63F SURFACE DEW POINTS COMMON ALONG/S OF THE
   WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM CNTRL VA TO SRN DE.  HEATING HAS BEEN
   MINIMAL TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OWING TO CLOUDS...BUT STEEPER LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT HAVE BEEN ADVANCING EWD...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF
   500-1000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT NEWD INTO ERN VA.  
   
   A THIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
   ALONG A FRONT FROM CNTRL WV SWD INTO CNTRL NC. COLDER AIR ALOFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAS BEEN LAGGING BEHIND THIS CONVECTION
   SOMEWHAT...BUT SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THE LINE LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY
   EVE.  THUS... CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY INTO A STRONGER LINE OF TSTMS
   ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL/ERN VA AND ERN NC LATE THIS AFTN.  VERTICAL
   WIND PROFILE WAS QUITE STRONG...AND UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE AS
   BUOYANCY REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK.  BUT...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
   STRONGER SUSTAINED STORMS LATE AFTN-EVE...CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE THREATS.  THE HIGHEST
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM
   NCNTRL/NERN NC INTO SCNTRL/SERN VA.  THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY
   SPREAD FARTHER NWD INTO SERN PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER
   TONIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT AS FAR N AS
   CNTRL NJ/EXTREME SERN PA.  
   
   ...SRN FL...
   PRE-FRONTAL LINEAR MCS HAS LARGELY CLEARED SRN FL...LESSENING SEVERE
   RISKS. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SWD THROUGH CNTRL FL AT
   MID-AFTN...BUT STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS AND
   DECREASED MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PARENT FRONT WILL PRECLUDE
   TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/04/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z