SPC AC 090511
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 PM CST WED FEB 08 2006
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 70 SSW SJT SJT
   SEP CRS 50 SSE CRS CLL 45 WNW VCT LRD.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BASIC MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN
   CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN RIDGE OVER W COAST AND ERN STATES TROUGH. 
   HOWEVER...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DETAILS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
   INCREASE IN THUNDER PROBABILITIES LATE...COMPARED TO PROHIBITIVELY
   DRY/STABLE AIR MASS NOW OVER CONUS.  STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SASK -- WILL
   DIG SEWD TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT
   FALLS FROM WRN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...MID/UPPER CYCLONE -- NOW CUT OFF OVER BAJA SPUR AMIDST
   PREVAILING REX PATTERN -- IS FCST TO ACCELERATE EWD FROM MEAN RIDGE
   POSITION.  THIS FEATURE WILL LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE...BECOMING
   POSITIVELY TILED AND OPEN-WAVE TROUGH...AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN
   MEX AND FAR W TX.
   
   INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM PERTURBATION --
   WILL PLUNGE SWD ALONG FAVORED HIGH PLAINS CORRIDOR TO NEAR PERMIAN
   BASIN OF W TX BY 10/12Z...EXTENDING ENEWD THROUGH ARKLATEX REGION
   THEN NNEWD INTO SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR LS SHORELINE OF WI.  LOW LEVEL
   WAA REGIME WILL INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND ATOP STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL PRECEDE FROPA THROUGH 10/12Z.
   
   ...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL TX...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT --
   MAINLY DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD...ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED
   MOIST/UNSTABLE LAYER.  MRGL MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP AS
   PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR MASS ADVECTS NWWD OFF WRN GULF...FOLLOWING
   ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVING TRAJECTORIES INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL TX ALONG
   ASCENDING ISENTROPIC SURFACES. ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY RAISE PARCELS TO
   LFC...RESULTING IN TSTMS.  VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ROOTED INVOF
   850 MB -- ALONG AND W OF 35-45 KT LLJ. LACK OF MORE ROBUST
   MOISTURE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK MUCAPES OF LESS THAN 200
   J/KG...PRECLUDE PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE UNTIL AFTER END
   OF PERIOD.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/09/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z