Feb 15, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 15 13:02:10 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060215 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060215 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060215 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060215 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 151259
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006
   
   VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY...
   FAST ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH
   SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO THE
   CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER
   PARTS OF CO/KS/OK IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
   WINDS IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOIST AND MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
   NIGHT. MODELS SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS
   PARTS OF IL/MO/IND...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   CAPE VALUES WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ...CO/UT/WY...
   ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER
   TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES PARTS OF WY/UT/CO.  RAPIDLY COOLING MID
   LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG ASCENT WILL AID THREAT.
   
   ..HART.. 02/15/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z