Feb 15, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Wed Feb 15 13:02:10 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
|
|||||||||||
SPC AC 151259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY... FAST ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF CO/KS/OK IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS PARTS OF IL/MO/IND...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. ...CO/UT/WY... ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES PARTS OF WY/UT/CO. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG ASCENT WILL AID THREAT. ..HART.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |