Feb 17, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Feb 17 13:02:13 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 171258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING WRN NY/PA WILL REACH WRN NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWING SOMEWHAT AS IT CONTINUES E/NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. FAST-MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WILL SWEEP E OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/ MID ATLANTIC CST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY AMPLIFYING OVER ORE/NRN CA. AN IMPULSE NOW W OF KSFO SHOULD DAMPEN AS IT CONTINUES E INTO CNTRL CA LATER TODAY. AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK THAT ATTM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SWWD OFF THE WA CST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NRN CA LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...NRN PA/CNTRL AND ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND... A NARROW LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSED WRN NY/PA EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS BAND IS PRECEDED BY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM YESTERDAY'S STORMS IN THE OH VLY. GIVEN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF BOTH CONVECTIVE LINES...AND WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DO NOT FORESEE INTENSIFICATION OF THE BANDS AS THEY MOVE E ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF STRONG FRONTAL UPLIFT AND MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY /BASED NEAR 700 MB PER AREA SOUNDINGS/ MAY YIELD OCCASIONAL CG LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED THUNDER APPEAR LOW. SURFACE-BASED INVERSION IN PREFRONTAL AIR SHOULD ALSO MINIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG GRADIENT FLOW...ALTHOUGH HIGH SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR MAINLY INVOF TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS IN ERN NY/NEW ENGLAND GIVEN 60+ KT LLJ. ...CA... FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /950 TO 700 MB LAPSE RATES AOA 7 DEG C PER KM AND TOTAL TOTALS INDICES IN THE MID 50S/ WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN CA TODAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES INLAND. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL CA MOUNTAINS. SOME ACTIVITY MAY ALSO FORM ALONG THE CST...AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. ..CORFIDI.. 02/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |