Feb 17, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Feb 17 15:54:15 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 171551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... NARROW LINE OF ENHANCED...MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION OF ERN NY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES NARROW AXIS OF HEATING/CLEARING EXTENDING INTO SERN NY WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. LARGE SWATH OF NEAR SEVERE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY NOT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION. HOWEVER...APPEARS SOME AUGMENTATION OF THESE LARGER SCALE WINDS WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FARTHER EWD...EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND OPEN CELL CU FIELD NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OF THE CA COAST WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ..EVANS.. 02/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |