Feb 17, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 17 15:54:15 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060217 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060217 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060217 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060217 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 171551
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0951 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006
   
   VALID 171630Z - 181200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NY INTO WRN NEW
   ENGLAND...
   
   ...ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...
   NARROW LINE OF ENHANCED...MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG LEADING
   EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING
   COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION OF ERN NY. 
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES NARROW AXIS OF HEATING/CLEARING
   EXTENDING INTO SERN NY WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND.  LARGE
   SWATH OF NEAR SEVERE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND CONTINUE THROUGH
   THE DAY NOT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION. 
   HOWEVER...APPEARS SOME AUGMENTATION OF THESE LARGER SCALE WINDS WILL
   REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
    LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FARTHER EWD...EAST OF THE CT RIVER
   VALLEY...AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE
   ATLANTIC COAST.  
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
   VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND OPEN CELL CU FIELD NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OF THE CA COAST WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SHALLOW
   MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.  ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES
   SHOULD BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
   
   ..EVANS.. 02/17/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z