SPC AC 090057
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0657 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
   TX...ERN/SRN OK EXTREME SERN KS/NWRN AR AND SWRN MO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS
   THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY...
   
   A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN CO INTO SRN NM AND IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD INTO WRN OK/TX BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NEWD OUT OF
   THIS TROUGH ACROSS WRN TX THIS EVENING. A 90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET...
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SWRN TX INTO
   ERN OK OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER SWRN TX ARE LIKELY
   REFLECTIVE OF THE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING INTO THAT
   REGION.
   
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM NRN TX
   NEWD INTO IA AND THESE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
   STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET MAX EJECT NEWD.
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 55-75 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER O3Z ACROSS NRN TX/ERN
   OK/SERN KS AND MO AS LARGE SCALE LIFTING STRENGTHENS AS A DRYLINE/
   COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ERN KS SWWD INTO WRN TX...
   BEGINS MOVING EWD. STRONG VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER 1 TO 3 KM WOULD
   SUPPORT TORNADOES IN CELLULAR STORMS...AND ONE OR TWO OF THE
   TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO EXTREME
   NWRN AR AND SWRN MO.
   
   THE MODELS SUGGEST THE FORCING BECOMES MORE LINEAR LATER TONIGHT 
   AS THE WINDS ALOFT BACK AND BECOME MORE SLY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
   STORMS EVOLVING INTO A LINE AND THEN MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD AS A
   LINEAR MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. THE GREATEST THREAT
   FOR WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA.
   
   FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS SERN IA AND IL...50-60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET
    LIFTING NWD OVER A WARM FRONT IN NRN MO/SRN IL MAY RESULT IN
   ELEVATED STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..IMY.. 03/09/2006
   
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